TD 01W Update #4 (w/ 3-Day Fcast)

Tropical Depression 01W is stationary over the South China Sea. It remains very weak although an ASCAT pass earlier today continues to show 30 to 40kph winds near the low-level center, which is fully exposed right now (as seen on the VIS image below). Last few satellite frames show a new "hot" convective tower forming just north of the center ; we'll have to see if this amounts to anything with regards to development for TD 01W.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As for the forecasts, computer models continue to show complete dissipation within the next 2 days. The future of the system depends on the near-term movement especially in a region where significant changes in the shear is present. Either way, expect rains to continue for parts of Vietnam, largely due to the surge of the NE Monsoon. We'll have another update for TD 01W tomorrow.

IR Image from NOAA

Meanwhile, for the rest of the Pacific, clearer weather is forecast for the Philippines with only small chances of rain. Converging winds continue to develop showers, especially just east of Luzon.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Partly cloudy skies dominate the region although northern half will have higher chances for seeing rain the next 2 days. Stationary front producing showers across Eastern and Northern Luzon, as well as over Palawan. It should clear out by Tuesday with no other rain-maker in sight.


Visayas

Mainly clear skies here as well. A weak tropical wave might come in by Tuesday and try to bring showers across Eastern and Western Visayas. No significant rainfall amounts forecasted though.


Mindanao

It will be mostly clear for the start of the week. However, as the near-equatorial trough moves westward, we expect some rain showers to arrive by Tuesday affecting Southern Mindanao. Rainfall accumulations should only range between 30 to 60mm. Clearer weather should prevail on Wednesday.

We'll have another update for TD 01W tomorrow and the next 3-day forecast will be on Wednesday (February 22).
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 021912