SA GITNA NG BAGYO: Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #8

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) continues to track ever closer towards Luzon. It was last located approximately 270km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 420km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained are still at 150kph gusting to 185kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Aurora, Quirino, and Isabel. Signal #2 for Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Cagayan, Metro Manila. Signal #1 is in effect for Ticao Island, Masbate, Marinduque, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands.

VIS Image shows the eye is becoming more apparent and the higher cloud tops surrounding the center appears to be improving as well. You can also see much of Luzon and Visayas is under thick rain clouds that are surely bringing moderate rainfall.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The accompanying IR image also shows what seems to be warming cloud tops near the center--an indication that the eyewall is beginning to be established.

IR Image from NOAA

Typhoon Nesat still has about 12 hours of favorable conditions before making landfall which should help it reach Category 2 status later tonight. Furthermore, the diurnal maximum occurring tonight, there is a chance Nesat rapidly intensifies into a Category 3--that will be a wait and see scenario.

We are still forecast a landfall to occur near Casiguran, Aurora by tomorrow morning (Philippine Time as a Cat 2 or even a Cat 3 typhoon. Nesat will then track across Luzon passing through Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet (just north of Baguio City by Tuesday night), and exiting through La Union/Ilocos Sur area. Nesat should weaken back to a Cat 1 typhoon as it moves over land. It should exit Luzon by Wednesday morning and should be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by as early as Wednesday evening.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

I'm also including this Typhoon Risk Map for September 26 across Luzon. This map basically indicates the potential risks associated with Nesat in terms of winds, waves, and rain. As you can see below, the areas that will likely see typhoon conditions are Isabela and Aurora Provinces. The rest of Luzon will experience strong winds of not more than 120kph. The green and orange boxes indicate where the heavy rains will fall. Red and yellow shadings indicate storm surge potential. Please remember that all the data here are not official, it is still recommended to listen to your local authorities for the OFFICIAL warnings, advisories, and instructions pertaining to your area.

Typhoon Risk Map (NOT OFFICIAL)