Sa Gitna ng Bagyo

Tropical Update

2012-02-10T00:12:00.000-08:00

We are looking at a long line of rain showers draped across the Western Pacific that will likely keep Southern Philippines wet for the next few days. Aside from this disturbance, much of the region will see typical February weather.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Just as we have forecast 3 days ago, light to moderate rains are now moving into Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. A weak low pressure area (Invest 92W) and the tail end of a shear line is enhancing the showers we are seeing today. We'll see rains continue for the next 36 hours and could bring anywhere between 50 to 100mm in some spots.We'll have more updates about the rain in the Philippines below.

As for Eastern Asia, a weak low pressure system is moving out of Japan after bringing some scattered rain showers across Southeastern Honshu. The western half of the island continues to see sea-effect snow with temperatures hovering near freezing. Still cold, but dry, for China and the Koreas although we will see temperatures rebound by early next week. We are looking at highs of 3 to 6C by Monday although another push of cold air will come by Wednesday.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Much of the region will be unaffected by the rains to the south, for the time being. However, some light rains might spill into southern Bicol Region tonight and into tomorrow. Chances for rain will increase as time goes on with Sunday having 50% for Manila. GFS has been really good this week with regards to the push of the precipitation so decided to use it as the primary model for this forecast. Rains down south will likely start spreading into Southern Luzon beginning Sunday afternoon and will continue into Monday. Based on models, rain will reach as far north as the Cordilleras so we've also put 50% for Baguio City by that time. Temperatures will run normal for tomorrow although as cloud cover increases, temps will probably be limited around the 30-degree mark (colder for higher elevations).

Visayas

Eastern Visayas is now starting to get light to moderate rains, particularly Leyte-Samar area. Precipitation shield will continue moving westward and will start affecting Central Visayas (Cebu) tonight and into tomorrow. As stated above, rainfall amounts will range between 50 to 100mm. Models continue to show precipitation throughout the forecast period and will most likely be concentrated along the Visayan Peninsula (from Samar all the way into Cebu-Negros area). 3-day total amounts could possibly reach 200mm which could cause numerous landslides and widespread flooding. Unfortunately, there will only be some brief breaks between precipitation and no real dry-weather in the forecast for the next 3 days.

Mindanao

Much of the rain entering the country is primarily affecting Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Southern and western areas won't get much rain, except for a stray thunderstorm that is why we've kept Davao at 40% for the next 2 days. Still, don't be surprised to see some showers over the weekend. Next threat comes on Monday, which will be more widespread in terms of coverage (increased to 50% for Davao by that time). As for Northern Mindanao, we're expecting rainfall amounts to range from 30 to 80mm over the next 24 hours. Temperatures, on the other hand, will range between 23 to around 32C, cooler in places with abundant cloud cover and continuous rainfall.

We'll have another update on February 13, 2012 (Monday). If for some reason, low pressure east of the Philippines shows signs of development, we'll give an update right away but for now, the disturbance is too weak to warrant daily updates.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 021012

Tropical Update

2012-02-07T01:09:00.000-08:00

Except for a cold front and a weak trough over the Pacific, we have mainly quiet weather today in the forecast area.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Same pattern for East Asia with the cold front moving through Japan. Temperatures reached the 10-15C range today across Southern Honshu ahead of the front. Behind that though will be another surge of cold NW winds, increasing the chances of snow showers for the Sea of Japan-side of Honshu. Mainly quiet but cold for Korea and Northern China.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

With the high pressure dominating the region, it has been mainly quiet for Luzon. The past few mornings have been cold too with temperatures getting into 10C for Baguio and 20C for Manila. Keeping the same trend over the next few days although there could be some light rain showers developing by tomorrow as the front sags further southward. Another chance of precipitation could arrive by Friday although the bulk will be situated in Visayas and Mindanao.

Visayas

Some localized thunderstorms and rain showers observed on the satellite today, otherwise mainly sunny skies here as well. Showers could continue for the next 3 days. Computer models are developing an inverted trough that could reach the area beginning Friday, with the heaviest rains over Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

Mindanao

Quiet here as well, coupled with warm temperatures. Next chances for rain will be by Friday as trough moves through. Light to moderate rains could develop, especially on the northern half of the region.

Next update by Friday, February 10.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 020712

Tropical Update

2012-02-04T01:05:00.000-08:00

Just as forecast 3 days ago, we're now looking at a batch of light to moderate rains moving into Eastern Mindanao. Much of the precipitation is still offshore although we expect rains to move in later tonight. Elsewhere, we're seeing quieter pattern, across Eastern Asia, although cold air remains in place. South China Sea side is quiet while a surge of energy is currently moving westwards across the Pacific and into Western Micronesia.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We are watching two weak frontal systems, one in Japan, and the other is developing in China. The front south of Japan will continue moving away to the northeast. Behind this system will be fresh northwesterly winds which will reduce temperatures across the region once again. The NW winds will also enhance more snow showers on the Sea of Japan side of Honshu. Some areas here are already reporting 3 to 4 meters of snow depth and as much as 1 meter could still accumulate over the next few days. The Korean Peninsula will remain dry but still cold. For Eastern China, expect some light rain showers over the next 24 hours as a weak frontal system is developing in this region. The northern half of the country will remain cold as well.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL

Luzon

Region will be quiet although some light rains could developing across Northern and Eastern Luzon. Some showers also possible across Southern Luzon as moisture spills in from the south. The weekend looks mostly dry though, with slight chances for thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. As a front moves through on Monday and Tuesday, light rain could develop across northern half. Rain also possible by early next week across the Bicol Region as a vigorous batch of showers moves in from the east. Temperatures will warm back up, particularly in the northern sections.

Visayas

Some mid to high level clouds moving from the east and south although not expecting rains for tonight. Tomorrow might see some light rain showers, particularly along the eastern sections. Showers will linger until Monday. A potentially heavier batch of showers will move in by Tuesday, affecting Eastern Visayas and spreading westwards thereafter.

Mindanao

Batch of showers moving into Eastern Mindanao, around the Davao Regions. There could be as much as 50mm of rain over the next 24 hours so landslides and flashfloods are possible across these areas. Drier pattern sets up by Monday although rain showers could return by later Tuesday.

Next update by February 7, Tuesday.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 020412

Tropical Update

2012-02-01T00:09:00.000-08:00

We begin February with mostly benign weather conditions except maybe in Eastern Asia where a frontal system is moving through Northern Japan. Ahead of it, the warm front is bringing mild air with temperatures climbing into the teens across Kanto Plain (Tokyo Area). As this front moves through, cold arctic air will return to the region bringing very cold temperatures into Saturday. A piece of that cold air will also affect the Philippines, as we'll discuss later on.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The extra-tropical low moving through Japan will bring mostly rain across the southeastern part of Honshu, generally around the Tokyo area. The western side of the island will have snow that could pile up to another 50cm, especially in higher elevations. The continuous northwesterly winds off the Sea of Japan will continue creating snow showers for the next few days. Rest of Eastern Asia should be dry although as I said, temperatures will drop tremendously. Seoul could get down into the -15 to -20C by Friday night while Beijing could be in the -10 to -15C in that same time frame; Tokyo on the other hand could get down to -2C and only climb into the positive single digits by Friday and Saturday.

Another front, albeit weaker, is moving through the Western Pacific, setting up a weak shear line across the Marianas and is enhancing some thunderstorms in the vicinity. The tail-end located in the Philippines is also bringing light to moderate rain showers, particularly in the Bicol Region. Some places here have already received more than 100mm in the past 24 hours. More showers in the forecast, unfortunately. Rest of the Tropics is quiet with some showers observed in and around the South China Sea, although not expecting widespread precipitation here.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Mainly clear here, except for Central Luzon as well as the Bicol Region. Showers continue to linger due to the influence of the cold front; expect another 50 to 100mm by tomorrow around Catanduanes, Albay, and Naga. Also some light showers for Quezon, Rizal, and Aurora. Chances for thunderstorms will continue for the rest of Luzon. As for temperatures, we are forecasting a slight cooldown beginning Friday and could last into Saturday. Computer models have been hinting about this for days now and the solution seems to hold so have brought temps down by this weekend. Baguio City could see temps in the low teens (around 11C). Laoag and other areas in Northern Luzon could also see morning temps around mid to upper teens (around 17C) by Friday and Saturday. Manila will also experience a cooler morning but not as significant as the north.

Visayas

The shear line affecting Bicol is forecast to sag southward as the front pulls away so we have increased chances for rain for tomorrow, especially around Cebu. Mainly light rains of around 30 to 50mm so not very significant. Rain could linger into the weekend although it'll become more spotty and isolated by that time. Next chances of rain is by late Saturday as another frontal system moves across Northern Asia. Temperatures will run around normal. Not expecting the region to be affected by the cooling in Luzon although morning temps could still go around the low 20s, especially in more rural areas.

Mindanao

Clear weather expected here as well with only small chances for a stray thunderstorm or light rain showers. The rain line from Luzon is expected to reach Mindanao by Friday although by that time, it won't be as widespread so decided to retain 30% for Davao. Chances will increase by Saturday as a batch of light rain showers arrive from the east. Temperatures here will be warm with daytime highs reaching the mid 30s (around 33C) for tomorrow with only a slight cool down by this weekend.

Next update will be on February 4, Saturday.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 020112

Tropical Update

2012-01-29T00:38:00.000-08:00

Mostly clear weather dominates much of our forecast area. There are widespread showers across South China Sea and the Philippines but most of the precipitation aren't too heavy and will not be much of a problem. Siberian High remains in place for East Asia bringing clear but cold conditions, except for Western Honshu--where snow continues to pile up.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows scattered to widespread rain showers are affecting parts of Indochina, mainly Cambodia and Vietnam, as well as Malay Peninsula. There are also some reports of rain across Northern Borneo with amounts reaching up to 50mm. Showers will continue for these areas although amounts should be insignificant. Rain showers should decrease in coverage by tomorrow. Easterlies, meanwhile, is enhancing some rain showers across Eastern Philippines, particularly in Central Luzon as well as in Northeastern Mindanao. Places like Baler in the north have reported around 50 to 60mm of rain; Hinatuan in Mindanao is reporting around 50mm. We'll discuss more about the Philippines below. Meanwhile, cold temperatures remain across much of Eastern Asia. There are some scattered rain/snow showers for places in Central China, near the Yangtze River. Snow for Western Honshu as well with as much as 1 meter of snow for the higher elevations. Temperatures for this region will remain cold and will even be colder by the middle part of this week!

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Mainly clear for Luzon with the exception of eastern and southeastern parts. Latest satellite image shows showers continue to linger for Eastern Luzon, basically east of the Sierra Madre. It could be because of downsloping winds converging with the weak easterlies which in turn creates instability and lift. Models are showing this rain clouds to continue affecting the area for the next 2 days. With that, decided to bring 40% to Manila and Baguio for tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be light, most of which should be confined to eastern locations such as Aurora, Bicol Region.

Visayas

Mostly clear here as well with some scattered thunderstorms being spotted on satellite. Mainly dry for the next 3 days although models showing some scattered showers for tomorrow so have put 50% chance for Cebu. Next chance of precipitation comes on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain average; between 24 to around 31C.

Mindanao

Expecting drier weather for Mindanao although rain showers could linger until tomorrow. Slight chances for thunderstorms will remain thereafter. No significant weather make in sight. Temperatures will be warm across the region with temps spiking into the low to mid 30s during the afternoon hours.

Next update will be on February 1 (Wednesday).
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 012912

Tropical Update

2012-01-26T01:22:00.000-08:00

A cold front is diving down the Philippines today bringing cool winds and scattered showers. Rain continues for parts of Borneo and Indochina as well. Cold with chances of snow showers for East Asia.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tail-end of cold front is producing widely scattered showers across Eastern Visayas, as well as Eastern Mindanao. Rainfall amounts range generally between 30 to 60mm. Behind the front, cool NE winds are bringing temperatures down across Northern Luzon with places like Laoag dipping into mid to upper teens, while elevated areas like Baguio are seeing temperatures go to the low teens. These winds are also increasing wave heights along northern and eastern sections of Luzon. Converging winds are also bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms across Borneo Island with amounts ranging from 50 to 100mm. While much of the showers are confined over water, we expect showers will move into parts of Indochina by this weekend. Places like Southern Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula could see increased chances for rain within the next 2 days.

Across Eastern Asia, we are seeing a slight rise in temperatures although another cooldown is expected next week. Chances for snow remains high along the western areas of Honshu; snow could pile up to another 50cm over higher terrain. Cold temperatures over the Korean Peninsula with negative single digits across South Korea while negative teens over North Korea. A mix of light freezing rain, snow, and rain, will affect Southern and Eastern China over the next two days.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL

Luzon

Cooler temperatures today, together with breezy conditions. Mostly clear though with some cloudiness over Eastern Sections. No rain in sight although left slight chances for precipitation throughout the forecast period. Some light rain could form by Sunday as a weak front develops north of Taiwan.

Visayas

Cold front is now moving across Visayas as seen on satellite. This is producing cloudiness and scattered rain showers across the central and eastern areas. Only light rain amounts expected. Chances of rain will remain until tomorrow; clearing expected by Saturday except for Eastern Visayas (Samar-Leyte Area).

Mindanao

Some light to moderate rain showers are affecting Central and Eastern Mindanao today. Rainfall amounts could range from 40 to 80mm. Rains should dissipate tomorrow and clearer weather expected by Saturday. A weak tropical wave well south of Guam could approach by Sunday, computer models though are showing this to stay south of Mindanao so only put 40% for Davao by that time.

We'll have another update by Sunday (January 29, 2012)
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 012612

Tropical Update

2012-01-23T01:37:00.000-08:00

Quiet weather dominates Eastern Asia while the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is bringing widespread showers across parts of Borneo and Mindanao. A weak LOW is also bringing a mix of rain and snow for parts of Honshu.

IR Image from NRLMRY

A developing low pressure is currently south of Japan and is quickly moving eastward. This system is bringing scattered rain showers for Southeastern Honshu, including Tokyo. Areas facing the Sea of Japan could get light snow while accumulations of 10-20cm could fall in Northern Honshu over the next 3 days. There is also a chance for a mix of rain and snow for the Tokyo Area later tonight. Quiet weather for China and the Korean Peninsula. Next chance of precipitation will be this Wednesday. Temperatures will remain very cold for the region with some slight warming by the middle of this week.

Meanwhile, the ITCZ continues to bring scattered to widespread rain showers across SE Asia. While we haven't seen any reports of heavy rains yet, we'll continue to see precipitation for the next 2 days, particularly around Borneo and Southern Mindanao. As this batch of showers move westward, chances of precipitation will increase for Malay Peninsula and even Southern Vietnam tomorrow. Rainfall amounts should range between 40 to 80mm.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast Graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Another quiet day for the region with the high pressure to the north bringing clear conditions and cool northeasterly winds. Breezy conditions along the waters of Eastern Luzon could produce some rough surf. No large rain maker in the forecast although there could be some light rain showers by Thursday as a cold front moves on by, especially around the Bicol Region. Temperatures will remain warm with a slight cooling by Wednesday and Thursday.

Visayas

Rains from the ITCZ aren't affecting the region as of the moment although clouds are spilling into parts of Visayas. Clear weather expected for tomorrow as well. Computer models are showing some precipitation to affect the region late Wednesday into Thursday so we've increased the chances to 40% around Cebu. Higher chances for Eastern Visayas. Temperatures will range between mid 20s to low 30s.

Mindanao

As we have forecasted 3-days ago, scattered showers are affecting parts of Southern Mindanao. While amounts are mostly light, expect rains to linger for the next 2 days. Majority of the rains are confined south of the island although we are still seeing clouds and precip moving north. Another wave can be seen near Palau which could affect the region later tomorrow. Rains are forecast to subside by Wednesday although another round of showers is forecast to return by Thursday. We are not expecting large rainfall amounts although continuous precipitation can still trigger minor flooding and landslides.

We'll have another update by Thursday (January 26, 2012)
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 012312

Tropical Update

2012-01-20T01:32:00.000-08:00

Not a whole of weather going on across Asia with just a few scattered precipitation observed in some locations. Rain in Southern Japan, wintry weather for China and Korea, monsoonal rains for SE Asia, and a Tropical Wave near Palau are what we are watching right now.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Starting with Japan, light rains have, for the most part, ended across much of Southern Honshu today. Most areas are reporting rainfall amounts of around 50mm with some isolated amounts of nearly 100mm. As the LOW moves away, we expect a slight dip in temperatures with Tokyo only getting into the upper single digits for tomorrow. Temps should rebound by Sunday though. The Korean Peninsula, on the other hand, will have partly cloudy skies with chances for scattered snow showers as the wind flow is enhancing sea-effect snow; not expecting a whole lot though. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance is also moving across Central China bringing a wide range of precipitation. Mostly rain mixed with sleet although higher elevations could see a period of light to moderate snow. Please check with the CMA for more info. As for SE Asia, we are only seeing some scattered showers brought by the monsoon. Rainfall amounts range between 50-80mm in Indochina will some areas in the Malay Peninsula are reporting rains of nearly 100mm. These conditions will continue for the next few days, but as mentioned, precipitation will be scattered. As for the W Pacific, a vigorous wave is moving near Palau with some strong thunderstorms. It is moving west and could affect the Southern Philippines within the next 24 to 48 hours. We'll discuss more about this system in the paragraph below.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast graphic is NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Mainly clear skies for Central and Northern Luzon. This is allowing temperatures to climb into the 30's. NE winds are moderating it a little with cool breeze, especially along the coastal areas of Northern and Eastern Luzon. A weak shear line is producing some scattered, albeit weak, showers across Southeastern Luzon. Not expecting precipitation to reach into Central Luzon (Manila), although chances for an isolated thunderstorm remains. Temperatures will range between 24-31C; cooler in Baguio and higher elevations.

Visayas

Fair conditions also observed across the region. The shear line is modeled well by the computer guidance so still expect scattered rains for Eastern Visayas for the next 2 days. Enhanced easterlies are also forecast by next week so we'll have to see how it affects the area. For now, left a small chance for t-storms across Central Visayas. Temps will also be around 24-31C although an increase in cloud cover tomorrow might hold temps in the upper 20s.

Mindanao

As mentioned, we are watching a pretty strong inverted trough (Tropical Wave) that is moving westward near Palau. Koror Airport is reporting ENE winds of around 15kph with gusts of up to 30kph. Chances for development are extremely slim although the Canadian Model remains consistent in that it shows a weak Tropical Depression by early next week. Not buying this solution as of right now although we'll continue watching the system for any development. Right now, this batch of showers are forecast to move into Eastern Mindanao later tomorrow. Only put 40% chance of rain in Davao for tomorrow although if models are correct, expect rains to overspread the area by tomorrow and into Monday. Fair skies are allowing temperatures to spike into the middle 30s today. We expect lower 30s for tomorrow and then a slight cooling trend as showers arrive.

We'll have our next update on January 23, 2012 (Monday). If necessary, we might put out a quick update if that wave near Palau develops into an invest.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 012012

Tropical Update

2012-01-17T01:23:00.000-08:00

Quiet weather dominates much of Asia today with just a few showers near the tropics. The frontal system that brought various types of precipitation to China is now moving across the Pacific. Rainfall amounts of around 50 to 80mm were recorded in Eastern China as well as the Ryukyu Islands in Japan. A few centimeters of snow were also recorded in some parts of China as reported by the CMA. Meanwhile in the tropics, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is producing scattered showers across Western Micronesia. We are also seeing some isolated thunderstorms across the Philippines.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As the cold front digs southward, we expect a surge of NE winds to East and Southeast Asia which could produce scattered rain showers as well as bring cooler temperatures. For now, we are seeing quieter weather patterns for Indochina, Malay Peninsula, and Borneo Island; although there could still be isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Meanwhile in China, we expect a drier regime for the next 2 days although dense fog is a concern for much of the country. In Japan, snow has lightened up in Northern and Western Honshu. Next chance of precipitation comes this weekend as another low exits China. Temperatures will rebound by the latter part of this week--southern parts of Honshu could see temps into the mid teens. Korean peninsula will remain cold with temps ranging from -5 to around 3C. Northern Asia will remain cold as well with below zero temps all throughout.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Cold front moved through yesterday bringing some light rains into the region. Still seeing some cloudiness today although the threat of precipitation has now decreased. There could still be some scattered light rain showers as northeast winds increase. No large rain-makers in sight but decided to left slight chance for isolated storms that could occur during the afternoon hours. Models are suggesting rain showers by Thursday/Friday as the easterlies return, setting up a wind-convergence effect. For now, left a 40% for Manila although Southern Luzon could have a higher chance of seeing rains by that time. Temps will range between 24-31C, cooler in Baguio.

Visayas

Rain has also abated along the eastern portions of the province. Right now, only spotty thunderstorms can be observed on satellite. These showers are not expected to linger although depending on duration, these could drop significant amount of rainfall in a small amount of time. As mentioned above, not expecting large precipitation event within the next 3 days although showers could affect the region starting Thursday. We'll have to watch that cluster of showers near Koror as that could possible affect Eastern Visayas in two days' time. Less cloud coverage is allowing temperatures to climb into the low 30's in some areas. Expecting similar scenario for tomorrow.

Mindanao

A volatile weather pattern as we head into the week. Main concern is the batch of showers near Koror. We've seen these types of convection before and more often than not, they die down during the night and become widely scattered as they reach Mindanao. Therefore, we've decided to keep chances at around 40% for the next 2 days. A higher chance for Friday as models bring in a strong wave of convection off the Pacific. Mediocre initialization among models today, however, so confidence in forecast is somewhat low. We'll have to see how this pans out over the next 36 hours.

Next update on January 20, Friday. If necessary, we may have to issue a quick update tomorrow or on Thursday regarding the showers near Mindanao. Stay safe!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 011712

Tropical Update

2012-01-14T01:44:00.000-08:00

A wet pattern for much of the area today with widespread rains across Southern Philippines, as well as Malaysia and parts of Indochina. A wintry mix is possible in Eastern China while snow continues to fall in Western and Northern Japan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

First we'll look into the rains in Indochina. We have the convergence associated with the monsoon producing scattered rain showers for parts of Malay Peninsula and Borneo Island; stray showers also possible for Southern Vietnam. Aside from the monsoon, there is a weak low pressure area approximately 500km south of Ho Chi Minh City. We are not expecting any development for this LPA although it will continue to bring rains to Indochina for the next 2 days. Recent rainfall reports are generally less than 100mm. We expect these same rain amounts to continue before precipitation begins to die off.

A surge of convection associated with the convergence is also affecting Southern Philippines. Parts of Eastern and Central Mindanao have received around 50 to 80mm of rain so far. Some parts of Visayas also getting light to moderate rain showers this past 36 hours. While rainfall amounts will be light to moderate, still expect some minor flooding and even landslides in mountainous areas. We'll discuss more about this precipitation later in our post.

Moving north, we are seeing some widespread light to moderate rains across Central and Eastern China. There have also been reports of sleet and snow in the higher eleveations. Mainly rain, though for parts of Southeastern China including the provinces of Guangdong and Fujian. This batch of precip is associated with a developing frontal boundary located in Eastern China. Moist and unstable atmosphere is triggering showers that extend as far south as Northern Vietnam and Thailand; Ryukyu Islands and Northern Taiwan will also continue seeing some light rains for the next 2 days. Computer models are handling this energy very well and is being shown to begin tracking eastward into the Pacific Ocean. Once developed, the cold front could affect Northern Philippines by as early tomorrow.

Meanwhile, we continue to see snow for parts of Western and Northern Japan. Snow depth in some locations already exceed 3 meters! As much as 1 meter more of snow is expected especially in the higher elevations. Korean Peninsula and NE China remains fairly dry. Temperatures remain cold throughout although we expect a slight moderation by the middle of next week. Just want to note as well that the overall pattern of the atmosphere is somewhat changing this week, influencing the track of extra-tropical lows in E Asia. If computer models are right, we expect storms to track south of Japan this week.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

Mainly dry conditions with moderate to strong northeasterly winds. Showers from the south are not expected to affect Luzon until tomorrow afternoon so left a 30% for rain for both Manila and Baguio. A higher chance of precipitation by Monday as the front in E China moves on by. Not expecting too much although increased chances to 40% in Manila and 50% in Baguio. Threat of rain continues throughout the week. Palawan will have higher chances of rain as well as the Bicol Region. Temperatures around 24-31C, with a slight cool down by Monday as rain and cloud cover arrives.

Visayas

Rain will overspread the region tonight and will continue into tomorrow. Eastern Visayas will continue to see rain until Monday at least; amounts will be around 100mm. Keeping temperatures on the cool side due to the precipitation.

Mindanao

Mainly wet with on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms. Higher chance of rain on the eastern parts. Zamboanga Peninsula also seeing some scattered rainshowers. These disturbances will continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. Another batch of rain around Palau is expected to affect the region by tomorrow. Computer models are showing a decrease in rain coverage by Monday so decided to decrease chances to 40% in Davao. Threat for isolated showers remain throughout.

Another update by January 17, Tuesday.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 011411

Tropical Update

2012-01-11T01:54:00.000-08:00

A drier weather pattern looks to be setting up for much of the Philippines this week with most showers confined to the eastern parts of the country. A developing frontal system south of Japan is bringing snow showers across Western Honshu and much of Hokkaido. A batch of showers also continues to persist in the South China Sea affecting Borneo and the Malay Peninsula producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

IR Image from NRLMRY

A shearline associated with the cold front across the Pacific is bringing widespread rains across Eastern Visayas. Nearly 200mm of rain has already fallen for parts of Samar and Leyte and as much as 100mm for Southern Bicol. We expect more showers today and into tomorrow although coverage and rain amounts should be lesser. Dry weather for the rest of the Philippines though as high pressure dominates the north as well as the southern portions.

A developing LOW near Japan is enhancing sea-effect snow for Western Honshu and Hokkaido. We expect another 30 to even 50cm of snow for higher elevations for the next 24 to 36 hours. Behind this front will be cold temperatures for NE Asia. Temperatures will continue to linger around the freezing mark for much of the Korean Peninsula. Negative teens for NE China and Russia. The surge of the NE Monsoon will also bring windy conditions for E China and into Taiwan.

Across the South China Sea, we continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms for Malay Peninsula and Borneo Island. Recent rainfall reports range from 50 to 80mm. The bulk of the showers is offshore and we are not expecting any widespread rains for the next 2 days. Showers will mostly be isolated and won't last long.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY FORECAST

Here is our forecast, NOT OFFICIAL!

Luzon

NE Monsoon affecting much of the region bringing slightly cooler temps as well as windy conditions. Cloud cover keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 20s today and will last into Friday. A developing front across Japan will increase cloudiness but since the system is quickly moving to the northeast, we expect clearing weather for the next 3 days. Still, we won't rule out a shower or two for Northeastern Luzon. Also expecting fair weather for Manila and the rest of Central/Southern Luzon. Be on the lookout, though, for isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. The shearline affecting Eastern Visayas will also bring scattered showers for Southen Bicol Region. Amounts should be light (around 50mm).

Visayas

As mentioned before, a weak shearline continues to exist as the cold front sags south into the Marianas. Latest satellite data show the showers have slightly weaken and is mainly situated offshore. We are still expecting showers for Eastern Visayas for the next 24 to 36 hours. As the frontal boundary weakens, models are bringing these showers westward by Friday. Left 40% chance of rain for Cebu for the possibility of a stray shower for the next 2 days. Weak ITCZ expected to move westwards and affect the region by Saturday. Temps will remain normal with some low 30s during the day.

Mindanao

Generally quiet across the region and should stay that way for the next 2 days with some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Next batch of precipitation is expected by Friday night into Saturday as the trade-wind convergence line moves westward. For now, left a 40% chance for Davao by Saturday but that could very well change depending on the model runs. Dry weather will promote warm temperatures throughout this week with as high as 33C in some spots during the day.

Next update by January 14, 2012 (Saturday), STAY SAFE!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 011112

Tropical Update

2012-01-08T01:39:00.000-08:00

Wet conditions persist for much of the Philippines this weekend. Precipitation is also affecting some parts of SE Asia, particularly Malaysia. Rest of East Asia is quiet and cold.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Starting with the Philippines, we have two areas of concern--convergence zone and a weak tropical disturbance. The first one is bringing widespread light rains across Luzon and parts of Visayas. This is caused by warm easterly winds converging with cool winds from the northeast which then increases upper level divergence, causing rains. So far, reports range from 50 to 100mm of rainfall this past 24 hours. Based on the latest data, we expect rains to continue for much of Central Luzon, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas for another 24 to 36 hours. This batch of showers are slowly moving westward and could eventually affect Palawan and even some parts of Northern Luzon. Mindanao, on the other hand, is being affected by a weak Tropical Disturbance. A low-level circulation was spotted approximately 700km southeast from Davao City. This LPA is too weak and has no model support for cyclone development. Nevertheless, this disturbance will still bring light to moderate rains for parts of Mindanao today. The disturbance is also moving westward and computer models suggest it could affect Zamboanga Peninsula and Borneo Island tomorrow. Expect rainfall amounts to range from 100-200mm. High amounts of rainfall in mountain ranges could result into flashfloods and landslides, please coordinate with the local officials!

The line of showers affecting Luzon extends west into the South China Sea and is also bringing showers into Borneo Island. Places in Brunei and East Malaysia have recorded as much as 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours. As mentioned earlier, this is moving westward and could affect Southern Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula within the next 24 to 36 hours. Rainfall amounts will generally be light.

Rest of East Asia will be dry and cold. Snow in Northern Japan is winding down today and that region should expect snow-free conditions for at least another day. Computer models are showing another storm to develop midweek which could bring back the chance of snow for Northern Honshu and Hokkaido. Scattered showers will affect Eastern China and Northern Taiwan for the next day or so although rainfall amounts will be light. Average temperatures expected although a slight cooldown is forecast for Wednesday across NE Asia.

PHILIPPINES 3-DAY DETAILED FORECAST

Here is our 3-day forecast for selected cities in the Philippines. NOT OFFICIAL

Luzon

Rains will continue for parts of Central and Southern Luzon (Bicol Region). Temperatures will remain somewhat below average due to the continuous precipitation. Could be a wet procession for the Black Nazarene so prepare accordingly if attending. Rain should affect Northern Luzon tomorrow although expect light amounts. Clearing weather by Tuesday except for Southern Luzon. Southern Palawan will have rains Monday and Tuesday due to the approaching disturbance.

Visayas

Wet conditions likely for Eastern Visayas. Rainfall amounts 100-150mm. Threat of precip also increases for Central and Western Visayas tomorrow. Rain abating by Tuesday into Wednesday, still expect a shower or a thunderstorm. Somewhat cool Monday with temps in the upper 20's but should rebound by Wednesday.

Mindanao

Wet conditions as well for Eastern Mindanao due to the convergence and the Tropical Disturbance. Rainfall amounts here could be 100 to 200mm. High risk of landslides in mountainous areas. As the showers move west, expect rains to overspread into Central and Western Mindanao by Monday night. Rainfall expected to last for another 2 days. Average temperatures expected.

Another Update by January 11, stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010812

Tropical Update

2012-01-05T01:47:00.000-08:00

A somewhat busy day today as we continue to monitor the weather conditions across the Western Pacific. Here is our IR image analysis showing the locations of systems that we will discuss.

IR Image from NRLMRY

First off, we continue to see some sea-effect snow for much of Northern Honshu as well as Hokkaido. Westerly winds blowing across the Sea of Japan are ushering trails of snow showers which could bring as many as 50cm (around 20 inches) of snow for the next 1 to 2 days with the biggest amounts in the higher elevations. We will continue to see this active pattern in Northern Japan for the next few days. Mainly quiet though for the rest of Northeast Asia. We could see a cold spell sometime next week as computer models hint a cool down that will affect the Russian Far East, NE China, Northern Japan, and Korea. Some areas could see highs only in the negative single digits!

As for lower latitudes, we have some rain and snow in Southern China and rain across Northern Taiwan. We don't expect significant accumulations though and much of the precipitation should begin to subside late tomorrow.

Converging northeasterly and easterly winds are spawning widespread rains across the Southern Philippines and Borneo Island. Some places in Mindanao and Visayas have received well over 150mm in the past two days. As much as 200mm have also fallen in some parts of Malaysia and Indonesia (Borneo). We'll continue to see rainfall in these areas for at least another two days. By then, there could be as high as 250mm of total accumulations so please be wary of flashfloods and landslides!

Specifically for the Philippines, we are forecasting quiet day tomorrow for Luzon. Chance of rain increases by Saturday for Northern Luzon as a weak shortwave passes across Eastern China while a passing shower or two is forecast for Central Luzon. Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to affect Central Visayas, including Cebu. Light to moderate rain will continue for Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas. Showers caused by the convergence should lift north by Saturday leaving Northern and Eastern Mindanao with dry conditions. Another batch of showers could approach from the east and could start affecting Mindanao and Visayas by as early as Saturday evening and into Sunday. Average temperatures expected for much of forecast timeline.

3-day Forecast. NOT OFFICIAL

Another update by January 8.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010512

Tropical Update

2012-01-02T01:31:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year everyone! Hope all of your limbs and fingers are still intact. :)

IR Image from NRLMRY

We welcome 2012 with generally quiet weather for much of the forecast area this week. As usual, we are watching several areas of interest in the Western Pacific. A low pressure area was spotted near Palau, approximately 500km southeast of Davao City. Right now, this disturbance is largely disorganized although an ASCAT pass suggests a weak low level circulation center. Recent reports out of Koror also indicate southeasterly winds of around 20kph with scattered rain showers.

While the chance for development is quite low, 90W threatens to bring widespread rains once it moves towards Mindanao. Computer models bring this batch of showers to Mindanao by as early as Wednesday although we won't rule out a shower or two in Eastern Mindanao as early as tomorrow. We will continue to watch this LPA for further development.

The rest of Mindanao and Visayas will have generally clear weather with slight chances for thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Wind convergence in Visayas could bring light to moderate rain showers. Luzon, on the other hand, will have partly to mostly sunny skies with breezy conditions due to the NE Monsoon. Temperatures will remain around normal for much of the forecast although we expect a slight cooling by Thursday as the cold front sags further south. Decided to increase chance of precipitation for much of the country by Wednesday and Thursday as the convergence is enhanced, as well as the arrival of the disturbance from the east.

Posted below is our 3-day forecast for selected cities. NOT OFFICIAL

We'll have another update on January 5th, stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 010212

Tropical Update

2011-12-30T01:31:00.000-08:00

Quieter weather regime is in place for the Philippines this week with the northerlies affecting Luzon and easterlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Eastern Asia is also mostly quiet and cold with chances for snow showers especially in NE China and the Korean Peninsula. Western areas of Honshu, as well as Hokkaido, in Japan will experience sea-effect snow. As for the tropics, we are currently watching two tropical disturbances: one in the South China Sea, and another in the Philippine Sea. This IR Image from NRLMRY depicts the numerous weather systems discussed in this update.

IR image from NRLMRY

The first tropical disturbance is Invest 98W which is located approximately 300km south of Vietnam in the South China Sea. An ASCAT pass earlier today suggests a developing low-level center with winds of 20 to 30kph. Wind shear is low to moderate (10-20kt). Sea surface temperatures are somewhat favorable. The system is embedded in the wind convergence that is producing showers across the South China Sea. 98W is moving westward at around 20kph and could approach the Thai-Malay Peninsula this weekend. The system has a low chance of development as noted by JTWC, as well as having little model support. Nevertheless, we do expect the disturbance to bring rains across Malaysia, Thailand, and even Cambodia and Singapore over the weekend.

VIS Image from NRLMRY showing the location of Invest 98W

The next system is 99W which is located approximately 400km southeast of Davao City. It, too, is embedded along a weak convergence that is bringing showers into Yap and Palau. While 99W's chances for development is low, it could potentially bring heavy rains across Southern Mindanao, depending on the track it takes. Right now, we have two scenarios: a tracks towards Western Papua/North Moluccas and North Sulawesi of Indonesia. The other potential track is towards the northwest into Southern and Central Mindanao. Either way, we expect rain showers to affect Davao Region starting tonight and will continue for the next 3 days. We will give you more updates with regard to the progress of this disturbance.

Finally, we have the 3-day weather forecast for cities in the Philippines. As said at the top, we expect quieter weather in the northern half of the Philippines with only slight chances for rain showers. Much of the precipitation will occur in the Southern Visayas/Mindanao region due to the wind convergence as well as the developing 99W. Please note that this is NOT OFFICIAL.

We'll have our next update on Monday, January 2, unless there's a significant development to either 98W or 99W. So this is potentially our last post for 2011. Until our next update, we hope you all have a wonderful and SAFE NEW YEAR!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 123011

Tropical Update

2011-12-27T01:22:00.000-08:00

Heavy rain continues to dominate the Southern Philippines, rubbing a salt in the wound as they say. More than 200mm have fallen in the past 24 hours alone in some locations in Mindanao. Areas in Region X (near CDO and Iligan) have also recorded 150 to almost 200mm. Furthermore, places in Visayas such as Cebu, Negros and Leyte Provinces have also reported heavy rains. We have created a simple graphic below showing the rainfall accumulations in the past 24 hours. Data were collected from PAGASA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and NASA's TRMM. Please do note that there may be discrepancies with the data so please use them with caution.

The heavy rains that the region have been experiencing is due to the combination of ITCZ and a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) that moved through Mindanao yesterday. This batch of showers will continue to move slowly to the west and will eventually affect Indochina by the end of the week.Furthermore, a cold front continues to trigger scattered rain showers across Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas.

IR Image from NOAA

We expect rainfall amounts to be around 100 to 200mm for much of Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Palawan will also have light to moderate rains that could amount up to 150mm. Luzon will see less rain although amounts of up to 100mm could still bring minor flooding. We do have this rainfall forecast map for the Philippines which shows accumulation for the next 24 hours. This is NOT OFFICIAL and should not be used in life or death situations.

The NE Monsoon behind this front is also bringing cooler temperatures across Northern Luzon. Places like Laoag have dipped into the upper teens last night. Baguio City have dropped to 12C on Christmas morning. Higher elevations in Central Luzon such as Antipolo and Tagaytay have also reported mid to upper teens within the past 2 nights.

Finally we have our 3-day Weather Forecast for Baguio, Manila, Cebu, and Davao. As always, THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. We'll have another update on December 30.

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122711

Tropical Update

2011-12-23T00:10:00.000-08:00

All is well across the Western Pacific today, except of course the Southern Philippines where people are still trying to recover from the flooding disaster brought by Washi. Right now there are no tropical cyclones in the region although we are watching some interesting weather, as noted by our analysis below:

IR Image from NRLMRY

Cold temperatures prevail across much of Eastern Asia with some cities not climbing out of the freezing mark. Weather here is pretty dry, though, except with some passing snow showers. Meanwhile in Japan, a snowstorm is currently affecting Hokkaido and Eastern/Northern Honshu bringing with it heavy snow (up to 50cm in some areas) and strong winds. The LOW will be moving slowly eastward so expect improving conditions by next week, except in the northern portions of Japan.

As for the Philippines, the tail end of the cold front will be moving southwards, bringing cooler weather for much of Northern Luzon. In fact, we could see the coldest temps of the month so far this coming Sunday. Places like Laoag and Aparri could see temps as low as 19C. Northern islands such as Basco and Itbayat will see temps go down to almost 16C. Mountainous areas including Baguio City could get down to as low as 12C come Sunday morning and even Monday morning. This cold surge won't extend farther south though so places like Cebu and Davao will remain mild with temperatures ranging from 22 to 32C. Furthermore, eastern sections of the country will experience increased chances for precipitation due to wind convergence. Expect rains across the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.

ITCZ is bringing rain showers across Palau and Yap today. There is also a weak circulation embedded although we are not expecting this to strengthen. Nevertheless, the ITCZ is forecast to move westwards in the coming days and could approach Mindanao by Sunday or Monday. Cities here will have scattered light to moderate rains.

We have released a 3-day Graphic Forecast for four cities in the Philippines. Please note that these forecasts are NOT OFFICIAL.

Next update will be on December 26, 2011. Until then, have a safe and happy Christmas!
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 122311

TD Washi Update #13 [FINAL]

2011-12-19T13:44:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression Washi is now rapidly disintegrating in the South China Sea, just east of Vietnam. The storm was last located approximately 340km east of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds are around 45kph gusting to 70kph. It is moving westward at 20kph.

The system is now weakening with convective activity almost gone. The circulation center is also becoming less defined, as seen on an ASCAT pass. A new surge of the NE Monsoon is bringing moderate wind shear and drier air. JTWC and JMA have both given their respective final warnings for the storm. As such this will also be our final update for TD Washi.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Washi's remnants could affect Southeastern Vietnam with scattered rain showers. Rainfall amounts should generally be light, however.

As the Tropical Season is nearing its end, we will revert back to giving 3x a week updates regarding the weather in the region. As always, we'll keep monitoring the Pacific for possible cyclone development.
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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 122011

Tropical Depression Washi Update #12

2011-12-19T01:16:00.000-08:00

Washi is now beginning to weaken over the South China Sea and has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression by both the JTWC and JMA. The storm was last located on satellite approximately 570km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 55kph with gusts of up to 80kph. TD Washi is moving west southwestward at 20kph.

Latest satellite image shows the system is becoming less organized as the system begins to encounter unfavorable conditions. Central convection is still strong although the low level circulation center is now partly displaced to the southeast. Nevertheless, the system continues to hold much moisture and has actually brought heavy rains in the Spratly Islands. An islet called the South West Cay (currently occupied by Vietnam) recorded nearly 180mm of rain in the past 24 hours.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As the system "unravels", we expect rain showers to affect extreme Southern Vietnam, tonight and into tomorrow, amounts should be light. Washi should continue moving southward and could dissipate as early as tomorrow night. Its remnants could affect the Malay Peninsula by Wednesday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Meanwhile, the NE Monsoon continues to affect Luzon in the Philippines. Expect on and off showers with occasional downpours, specially in the afternoon hours. Casiguran, Aurora recorded more than 200mm of rain in the past 24 hours alone. Rains should taper off by Wednesday as the front lifts out. However, another cold front is forecast to dive down into East Asia by this weekend, bringing another round of precipitation and cold air with it.

We'll have more updates tomorrow, stay safe!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 121911

Tropical Storm Washi Update #11

2011-12-18T13:27:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi has now moved away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 820km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph gusting to 110kph. Washi has slowed down and is currently moving west southwestward at 15kph.

IR Image below shows the location of Washi. The core remains intact despite the increasing wind shear.

Washi will continue moving southwestward, avoiding Vietnam. It is forecast to begin to weaken as it approaches the Malay Peninsula by the middle part of this week.

Another update later this afternoon.
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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 121911

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #10

2011-12-18T01:36:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) continues to move away from Palawan and Mindanao and is beginning to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The center of the storm was last located approximately 400km west northwest of Puerto Princesa City or about 940km east southeast of Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph gusting to 110kph. Washi has also begun to turn to the west southwest and is moving at 30kph.

All signal warnings have now been dropped by PAGASA. Even though Washi is now moving away from the country, the death toll in Mindanao continues to climb and has already surpassed the 500 people-mark today. The Philippine Red Cross estimates that as many as 400 people are still unaccounted for. We haven't really received any casualty reports out of Palawan yet and let us hope it stays that way.

As we have forecast yesterday, weather conditions are now beginning to improve for much of Mindanao, allowing rescuers to do their job in finding the victims. However, there will still be some scattered rain showers, particularly in the Eastern Sections of Visayas, Southern Luzon, and Northern Luzon as the NE Monsoon continues to affect the said areas. The Visual Satellite Image from NRLMRY below shows the last location of Washi as well as a long convergence line that has set up over the South China Sea. This line of thunderstorms indicate a clash of windflow as the NE Monsoon surge and easterlies meet. The line stretches from as far south as Malaysia, northeast towards Luzon. Expect light to moderate rains for the next 24 hours. Rainfall out of Luzon and Visayas today range from 50 to 100mm, expect the same amounts for at least the next 2 days.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Going back to TS Washi, the storm has begun to reorganize a little bit as it moves over the open waters of South China Sea. However, we expect intensification to be limited due to increasing wind shear and drier air brought by the monsoon surge. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the SCS will decrease as Washi moves westward.

As far as the track, we have shifted our forecast southward to account for the recent turn, as well as latest computer guidance. Hence, the track is now aligned with most weather agencies in the basin. We forecast Washi to continue moving west southwestward, moving south of Vietnam. It will be approximately 400km south of Ho Chi Minh come Tuesday morning. Washi will then start to weaken as conditions become unfavorable. It is forecast to become a Tropical Depression by Tuesday and will likely dissipate by Wednesday. Its remnants will likely move into the Malay Peninsula, north of Singapore.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 121811

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #9

2011-12-17T13:52:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) is beginning to move away from the Philippines, after moving through Palawan last night. It was last located approximately 70km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, moving west northwestward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 75kph gusting to 100kph.

Washi has weakened as it crossed the Palawan Island. The center has become somewhat disorganized and elongated. We are still waiting reports out of Palawan although initial rain amounts range from 50 to 100mm. Meanwhile, in Mindanao, the death toll continues to climb and is now more than 400 people, with hundreds more missing. Again, the main culprit here are the flash floods, particularly in Iligan and Ozamiz. Right now though, Washi is moving away so we expect improving conditions.

There is still Signal Warning #2 for Palawan and Signal #1 for Cuyo and Coron Group of Islands, this is as of 5am from PAGASA.

Areas mentioned will still have rain showers throughout today, particularly in Palawan. Much of Mindanao and Visayas should get clearing skies with small chances of showers and thunderstorms. The rains brought by the NE Monsoon will continue to affect Central and Southern Luzon, particularly the Bicol Region.

Forecast track for Washi has not changed and we'll have more info regarding this later in our afternoon update.
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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 121811

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #8

2011-12-17T01:42:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) is now reorganizing over the Sulu Sea and is moving towards the province of Palawan. This after moving through Mindanao last night and leaving more than 150 people dead. Most casualties were reported near Iligan due to flash floods that hit overnight, catching many residents off guard. It is feared that that number could rise as authorities try to find more people from affected communities. 100 to 200mm of rain has also fallen across parts of Mindanao and Visayas. Even Central and Southern Luzon are reporting light rains due to converging winds brought by Washi and the NE Monsoon.

This surge in the monsoon will bring strong northeasterly winds across Northern Luzon together with light rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.

Washi was last located approximately 240km east southeast of Puerto Princesa City or about 290km northwest of Zamboanga City. Maximum sustained winds have weakened a little bit to 85kph gusting to 105kph. Our wind estimates are lower than that of JTWC based on latest satellite data. TS Washi is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #2 Palawan and Signal #1 for Cuyo, Coron Group of Islan, and Negros Island. All other warnings elsewhere have now been dropped.

Latest IR Image shows a new hot tower (yellow colored) erupting near the center which could suggest that Washi is trying to reorganize over the open waters. Wind shear have increased in the past 12 hours which left the center partially exposed this afternoon; it has since improved as new convection tries to fire off.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS Washi will be moving in to Palawan tonight, particularly near Puerto Princesa City. We are looking at a landfall of time of around 9pm tonight. Expect heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surges, particularly along the northern half of the island. Rainfall amounts could vary from 100 to 200mm. Washi is then forecast to exit into the South China Sea tomorrow morning.

Long term forecast takes Washi into the Eastern South China by early next week. JTWC is showing a sharper recurve towards Malay Peninsula. Our forecast is somewhat north of that and we are expecting Washi to make skirt the Southern Coast of Vietnam, near Ho Chi Minh very early Tuesday. It will then weaken due to land interaction, lower sea temperatures, and increasing wind shear. Washi could approach the Malay Peninsula by Wednesday as a weak Tropical Depression.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow morning, stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 121711

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #7 [LANDFALL]

2011-12-16T14:06:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Bagyong Sendong) is now moving into Sulu Sea after affecting Mindanao last night. The storm center was last located approximately 30km north northwest of Dipolog City or about 50km south southwest of Dumaguete City. Maximum sustained winds are still around 85kph gusting to 105kph. Washi is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA still have Signal #2 warnings for Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga Provinces. Signal #1 for Palawan, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, North Cotabato, and Maguindanao.

A recent microwave image shows an inner core that is intact and very organized--almost showing an eye, hence we kept the intensity at 85kph.

Image from NRLMRY

Western Mindanao (Zamboanga Peninsula) and Central Visayas (Particularly Negros Island) will continue experiencing stormy conditions with heavy rain and strong winds. Latest rainfall reports out of Mindanao range from 100 to 150mm with some locations like Cagayan de Oro reporting nearly 200mm of rainfall. We expect another 100mm to fall today across these parts. However, weather should begin to improve for most of Mindanao beginning this afternoon. TS Washi will then move into Palawan later this evening as a strong Tropical Storm. The warm waters of the Sulu Sea, coupled with weak wind shear, will allow Washi to regroup and perhaps intensify a little bit more before affecting the Province.

TS Washi is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday morning. After that, computer models begin to diverge as to the future track of the storm. For now, we forecast Washi to move westward into Southern Vietnam, affecting the country as early as Tuesday.

We'll have another update later this afternoon. Stay safe!
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 121711

TS Washi (Sendong) Update #6 [LANDFALL]

2011-12-16T02:09:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Bagyong Sendong) is now making landfall along the Eastern Mindanao Coast, particularly along the Surigao del Sur/Davao Oriental Provinces. It has strengthened a little bit just before moving into land with maximum sustained winds now around 85kph with gusts of up to 105kph. TS Washi has also slowed down and is currently moving westward at a speed of 20kph. The center of the storm was last located approximately 140km northeast of Davao City.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #2 for the provinces of Surigao Del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao Del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan Provinces, Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, and Camiguin. Signal #1 for Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, North Cotabato, Samal Island, Maguindanao, Davao del Sur, Zamboanga Provinces, Negros, Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Siquijor, and Palawan.

IR Image from NRLMRY showing the storm beginning to move into Mindanao. Bright colors mean stronger convective activity. The yellow circle represents the center of the storm (CDO) and is a sign of intense convection which could bring very heavy rainfall along with strong winds.

These areas will receive heavy rainfall along with strong winds overnight. We expect rainfall amounts of 150 to 250mm with isolated amounts of up to 350mm along the mountainous areas of Mindanao. The threat of landslides and flashfloods are very high, please coordinate with the authorities for evacuations! Stormy conditions will persist for at least 10 hours; weather should begin clearing out tomorrow for most areas in Mindanao.

Outer rain bands will also affect Cenral Visayas particularly Negros, Cebu, Bohol, and Panay. These rain showers may bring up to 150mm over night. Scattered thunderstorms, enhanced by Washi, may also affect Southern Luzon.

TS Washi will continue moving westward passing near Cagayan de Oro and Iligan City tonight. It will exit into Sulu Sea tomorrow morning as a weak storm. The interaction with the topography of Mindanao will be crucial for the future intensity of Washi. It may or may not have a chance of redeveloping over the water. Palawan will also be affected starting Saturday afternoon and into the night as Washi moves in from the east. The storm is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday afternoon. Computer models then take Washi along the South China Sea and into Southern Vietnam by Tuesday next week.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Invest 96W south of Guam has dissipated and no longer has a chance for development.

We'll have more updates tomorrow morning. Stay safe.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 121611

Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) Update #5

2011-12-15T01:31:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm Washi (Bagyong Sendong) is now strengthening at a quicker pace as it moves closer towards the Philippines. The storm was last located approximately 250km west of Palau or about 750km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph gusting to 90kph. TS Washi is moving westward at 30kph.

As of posting time, PAGASA has now released Signal Warnings in anticipation of Washi (Sendong). Signal #1 is in effect for Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte Provinces, Camotes Island, Bohol, Surigao Del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao Del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan Provinces, and Misamis Oriental.

TS Washi moved over Palau earlier today, bringing breezy conditions along with rain showers. The storm was not that strong then; Koror only reported maximum winds of around 40-50kph and a minimum pressure of around 1002mb. During the past 6 hours though, the system has really gotten itself together. Infrared satellite shows cloud tops continue to cool and a central dense overcast beginning to become organized. The image below is what we call a microwave satellite image which looks through the clouds (like an xray). In this particular image, we can see that Washi seems to have begun forming an ill-defined eyewall. While it has a small chance of becoming a typhoon due to very fast movement, it could still rapidly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Again, due to fast forward speed, TS Washi has roughly 24 hours left before it begins to interact with Mindanao. We have not changed our forecast significantly and are still expecting a landfall to occur sometime tomorrow afternoon or early evening. TS Washi is forecast to move near Surigao and then cross into the Central Visayas, affecting Bohol, Cebu, and Negros. Washi will then move into Sulu Sea by Saturday morning. It should then begin affecting Palawan by late Saturday night. Medium-term forecast shows that Washi could exit the PAR by Sunday morning.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

A new low pressure area was also spotted today. Invest 96W is located well southeast of Guam and does not pose any immediate threat to land. It has a LOW chance of developing into a storm although we'll continue monitoring this system.

We'll have more updates tomorrow, please stay safe!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 121511

Tropical Storm 27W Update #4

2011-12-14T15:35:00.000-08:00

Tropical Storm 27W remains a weak TS as it nears Palau. It was located approximately 150km east of the island, moving westward at 30kph. Maximum sustained winds are still at 65kph with gusts reaching up to 85kph. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Palau while the Tropical Storm Watch for Yap has now been cancelled.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest reports out of Koror indicate increasing winds with gusts reaching up to 45kph. Moderate rain showers are also being reported from the area. Expect stormy conditions to persist for another 6 hours. Since 27W is moving at a fairly quick pace of about 18kts, weather should improve in the Palau/Yap area by later tonight.

We are expecting Tropical Storm 27W to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later today; PAGASA will assign the name "Sendong" for 27W once it enters the PAR. Forecast track still takes 27W towards Northern Mindanao/Eastern Visayas by Friday. 27W could still intensify although as mentioned last night, we don't expect this system to become a typhoon.

More updates later this afternoon.
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Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 121511

Tropical Storm 27W Update #3

2011-12-14T01:01:00.000-08:00

27W has strengthened into Tropical Storm today. It was last located approximately 500km east southeast of Palau, moving westward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph gusting to 85kph.

Latest IR image shows that the low level circulation that was fully exposed this morning has begun to be cloud covered again as a new cluster of convection forms over the center. Cold cloud tops continue to form closer to the circulation which might indicate weaker wind shear. However, this batch of storms is still displaced somewhat northwest of the center; combined with the fast forward speed of 27W, we might see a slow rate of intensification for at least 12 to 24 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TS 27W is forecast to move close to Palau later tonight which is why a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Palau and a TS Watch for Yap. Expect winds to increase in the coming hours, combined with widespread light to moderate rains. Rainfall amounts could vary from 100 to as much as 200mm in 24 hours. There will also be increased surf as the storm approaches. Conditions should improve by tomorrow afternoon.

TS 27W will then continue moving westward and could be inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning. Due to the conditions remaining favorable throughout the forecast period, TS 27W should intensify further before impacting the Philippines. Timeline for TS 27W would be around Friday morning for Northern Mindanao. It will then cross into Central Visayas and exit into Palawan by Saturday. JTWC is forecasting this to become a typhoon, we're not. However, that could change.

Personal Forecast

We'll have more updates by tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 121411

Tropical Depression 27W Update #2

2011-12-13T14:25:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 27W has strengthened slightly as it moves westward across the Pacific. It was last located approximately 780km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph gusting to 75kph. TD 27W is moving westward at 25kph.

TD 27W gained strength overnight because of the favorable conditions in the region. There is, however, a slight increase in wind shear where 27W currently is situated. Because of this, the system does not look as organized as last night. Despite this setback, the main convection remains intact and there are still some cold cloud tops emanating from the cluster. Overall environment should remain favorable enough to allow 27W to strengthen to Tropical Storm strength, perhaps as early as today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TD 27W is forecast to continue moving westward and could approach Palau by later tonight/early tomorrow. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Tropical Storm Watches for Palau and Yap for strong winds beginning today. TD 27W will then continue moving westward, and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility early tomorrow morning (Thursday). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is very bullish in terms of development. Banking on improving outflow, weak wind shear, and high SSTs, JTWC is forecasting 27W to become a typhoon before moving into Northern Mindanao by Friday morning.

While the conditions do look good for continued development, we are forecasting a somewhat weaker peak wind. Depending on the rate of intensification, it is likely 27W will remain as a Tropical Storm and not become a typhoon. Of course, the forecasts can (and do) change.

IR Image from NOAA showing the locations of both 26W and TD 27W.

We have put out the final warning for 26W, for more info, please refer to our separate post.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 121411

Tropical Depression 26W Update #4(FINAL)

2011-12-13T14:06:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 26W is now beginning to dissipate south of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 350km south east of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum winds are now only around 35 to 55kph. 26W is moving southwestward at 15kph.

As forecast, increasing wind shear and cooler sea temperatures in this part of the South China Sea have blocked any development regarding 26W. Current IR image depicts fragmented and very weak convection; the center of circulation is barely recognizable as well. Rain clouds associated with 26W may try to move into Southern Vietnam today which could bring scattered rain showers, although amounts should generally be less than 100mm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Due to the weakening trend and the dissipation forecast, this will be our last update for TD 26W. For updates on the other depression--27W, please refer to our separate post.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 121411

Tropical Depression 27W Update #1

2011-12-13T02:13:00.000-08:00

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has just upgraded Invest 95W into Tropical Depression 27W. This system is located approximately 790km south of Guam. It is moving westward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds are currently around 45kph gusting to 65kph.

We've been talking for days about Invest 95W and its chances of developing; now here we are warning it as a TD. Conditions have been, and continue to be, favorable for development and the system has made improvements over the past 24 hours. Center of circulation continues to intensify and consolidate as evident on a microwave image. Furthermore, convective activity continues to increase and become more organized. Weak wind shear, moist air, and warm sea surface temperatures will continue to persist which will likely help 27W to strengthen further. In fact, JTWC is forecasting this system to become a Typhoon by Thursday!

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As far as the forecast goes, we expect TD 27W to remain in a generally westward movement. Based on its current speed, it is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility late tomorrow; if it does PAGASA will give the name "Sendong". As mentioned before, 27W will probably intensify further, given the favorable environment. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning and will move just south of Palau. By Thursday, it would be moving inside PAR and has a chance of becoming a typhoon by then--it all depends on the rate of intensification. If it continues to move on its present trajectory, we expect Mindanao to begin feeling the effects from 27W by as early as Friday afternoon.

We'll have more updates tomorrow morning.
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Issued (09 UTC) 6pm PhT 121311

Tropical Depression 26W Update #3

2011-12-13T02:02:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 26W is now weakening in the waters south of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 550km southeast of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds remain at 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 26W is moving west southwestward at 15kph.

The system currently has a very weak convective activity despite having low wind shear. The dry-air from the NE Monsoon is what's inhibiting development. The center of circulation is still intact although winds around it have weakened significantly.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Depression 26W is forecast to continue moving southwestward, avoiding landfall in Vietnam. However, still expect light to moderate rain showers for the next 1 to 2 days. The system will likely dissipate by as early as tomorrow as wind shear increases in the area.

Meanwhile, a new tropical depression formed in the Pacific today. For more info on this system, please check out our separate post: Tropical Depression 27W Update
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Issued (09 UTC) 6pm PhT 121311

Tropical Depression 26W Update #2

2011-12-12T16:11:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 26W remains a weak system as it continues to move westward towards Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are still at 45kph gusting to 65kph. 26W is moving westward at 15kph. The system briefly strengthened last night but then weakened earlier this morning. Shear continues to inhibit development of this cyclone.

Forecast remains generally the same for 26W. We don't expect any significant intensification due to unfavorable conditions that will return in the next 12-24 hours. Nevertheless, we do think rain will begin affecting Southern Vietnam today, particularly those near the coast. Due to the waning convective activity, rains will generally be light to occasionally moderate.

More updates for 26W later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, Invest 95W in the Western Pacific continues to consolidate while moving westward. It is approximately 950km south southeast of Guam. Microwave image shows convective banding with well-defined cyclonic turning at the lower and mid-levels. Conditions are favorable for continued development although computer models are not that bullish. JTWC has upgraded 95W's chances to "MEDIUM" and will continued to be monitored in the coming hours.
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Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121311

Tropical Depression 26W Update #1

2011-12-12T01:04:00.000-08:00

Invest 94W has just been upgraded by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center into a Tropical Depression. The center of 26W was last located approximately 450km west of Southern Palawan or about 750km east of Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 26W is moving westward at 15kph.

Significant improvements in the upper-air environment in the past 24 hours have really helped the recent organization of 26W. Wind shear in the area is currently sitting at around 15 to 20 knots with sea surface temperatures somewhat favorable. Dry air from the north easterlies (monsoon) are being offset by a surge of south westerlies that JTWC is attributing to a MJO event. These conditions should help 26W strengthen a little bit or at least maintain its current intensity for another 24 to 48 hours. Computer models bring 26W westward and eventually southwestward under the ridge and could begin to affect Southern Vietnam by Tuesday.

Satellite image below (from NRLMRY) shows the partially exposed low-level circulation center as well as the blow-up of strong convection (brighter white clouds) west and northwest of the circulation. The eastern side of the storm is "empty" due to the presence of shear.

Meanwhile, nother area of low-pressure was spotted in the middle of the Western Pacific. Invest 95W is located about 700km west of Pohnpei in Micronesia. Cyclonic turning is evident on the satellite loop as well as a recent microwave image. 95W is located in an area of light to moderate wind shear (10 to 20kts) with favorable sea temperatures. Computer models are not showing any development and most of them keep it as a weak tropical wave moving westward. Nevertheless, we'll continue to watch this little system as it could definitely evolve into something more than a LPA.

IR image from NRLMRY

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 121211

Tropical Update

2011-12-11T00:10:00.000-08:00

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center yesterday was allowed to expire this morning, hence Invest 94W was never upgraded into a depression by the said agency. We should note, however, that the JMA has still is classifying 94W as a Tropical Depression although not releasing special TC Warnings.

As predicted, the strong wind shear in the South China Sea is taking its toll on 94W's development. Its center (located approximately 400km west of Southern Palawan, around Spratly Islands) has become fully exposed today with weaker winds than yesterday as seen from an ASCAT pass. However, the most recent satellite images shows a new band of deep convection displaced southwest of the center which might suggest improvements with regard to 94W's development. With that said, latest models are still not showing development for 94W. Almost all of the computer models keep it as a weak tropical wave that could bring rain showers once it gets into Southern Vietnam. Wind shear across South China Sea remains very strong and that is significantly inhibiting 94W's chances of becoming a cyclone. Still, we'll continue updating you with this system.

As for the Philippines, rain showers continue to fall across Central and Northern Luzon. Rainfall amounts these past 24 hours is somewhat lower with most stations reporting "only" 50 to 100mm. As we have forecast yesterday, this batch of precipitation is slowly moving north and northeast (also weakening in the process). As the front in East Asia lifts out this Tuesday, we expect drier conditions together with warmer temperatures. Another front is forecast to dive into Korea/NE China by late next week which could bring another round of cool weather across the Philippines.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 121111

Tropical Update

2011-12-10T01:23:00.000-08:00

Invest 94W continues to slowly consolidate over the South China Sea. It is located approximately 400km northwest of Palawan. Its low level circulation center has become better defined today and winds have increased somewhat based on an ASCAT pass. Convective activity associated with this LPA continues to blossom as well. Because of the latest developments, JTWC is now putting out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 94W signifying a "HIGH" chance of cyclone development within the next 24 hours.

As far as computer models go, 94W is not forecast to become a strong cyclone mainly due to the strong wind shear in the area. Furthermore, we are also expecting 94W to slowly move away from the Philippines in the next 24 to 36 hours. Nevertheless, showers from 94W are still possible especially along Palawan.

Meanwhile, converging winds east of the Philippines is bring scattered rain showers across Luzon and Visayas. Another 100 to 200mm of rain fell in 24 hours triggering isolated landslides and minor flooding. This batch of showers should slowly lift north in the coming days.
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Issued (09 UTC) 121011

Tropical Update

2011-12-09T01:19:00.000-08:00

A Low Pressure Area has been spotted in the South China Sea, approximately 360km west of Palawan. An ASCAT pass earlier today reveals a disorganized low level circulation center with winds of 15 to 30kph. Some convection is also associated with the said LPA and is bringing scattered showers across Western Visayas and Luzon. Not much is expected with this disturbance due to the strong wind shear in the South China Sea. However, models do keep this batch of showers just west of the Philippines for at least 24 more hours before slowly moving westward.

IR image from NOAA

The bigger weather maker for the Philippines today is the ITCZ and the Northeasterlies (Amihan) which are affecting much of Luzon and Visayas. Both systems have already brought 100 to 200mm of rain this past two days across parts of Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, and Visayas Islands. Mindanao (particularly western sections) will also be experiencing scattered to widespread showers for the next 2 days. Models show the precipitation to slowly die beginning Sunday.

Apart from the rains, the northeasterly winds from East Asia is also bringing in colder air towards the country. We expect to continue seeing low temperatures in the middle 20's (celsius) in urban areas and possibly some teens in mountainous areas (eg Baguio). A slight warmup is projected to occur by the middle of next week.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 120911

TD 25 Update #2 (FINAL)

2011-12-05T02:08:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 25W is now beginning to dissipate in the waters east of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 630km east of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 45kph. JTWC has given their final warning for 25W this morning.

This short lived system never really got it going as it had to battle moderate wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. Nevertheless, there is still some convective activity associated with the circulation and still has the chance to bring scattered showers across portions of Eastern Vietnam; although rainfall amounts should not be that heavy.

Satellite image from NRLMRY

This will also be our final update for TD 25W. Rest of the Western Pacific is quiet.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 120511

Tropical Depression 25W Update #1

2011-12-04T13:56:00.000-08:00

Invest 93W has been upgraded into a Tropical Depression early this morning by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The system is located in the South China Sea, approximately 600km east of Vietnam.

Latest update from the JTWC shows an estimated sustained winds of around 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. An ASCAT pass last night picked up the low level circulation center with winds of somewhere around 30 to 50kph. However, convective activity has weakened and the depression has become a bit disorganized these past 6 hours. Based on the trends there is a chance 25W could dissipate sometime today. Nevertheless, the train of showers associated with this depression could still move towards Vietnam over the next couple of days.

Stay tuned for our afternoon update for more on 25W.
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Issued (22 UTC) 5am PhT 120511

Tropical Update

2011-12-04T01:54:00.000-08:00

Invest 93W is slowly developing over the South China Sea and has the potential to become a Tropical Depression over the next 24 hours. The low pressure area was last located approximately 280km northwest of Brunei or about 500km southwest of Palawan.

An ASCAT pass earlier today shows 35 to 50kph winds coming from the south and a clear indication of the existence of a low level circulation center. Convective activity is strong despite the moderate easterly wind shear in the area.

JTWC has upgraded the chances to HIGH so we will be closely monitoring this system if it does become a Depression. The forecast takes 93W towards the north and eventually to the northwest--towards Vietnam.

Visible Satellite from NRLMRY

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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 120411

Tropical Update

2011-11-16T01:20:00.000-08:00

Invest 91W is now moving across the South China Sea, away from the Philippines. It brought nearly 300mm of rain during these past 3 days, with the heaviest being reported across Bicol Region and Visayas Islands. Due to increasing wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures, chances of development is now slim. Nevertheless, the presence of 91W and the ITCZ will still bring rain showers across Central and Northern Luzon, as well as Palawan area with amounts less than 100mm. Scattered rain showers and/or thunderstorms could pop up elsewhere.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 111611

Tropical Update

2011-11-15T01:14:00.000-08:00

Invest 91W continues to bring widespread light to moderate rain showers across much of the Philippines. The LPA is now moving westward across Visayas/Southern Luzon Area. So far, reports from the country indicate rainfall amounts between 100 to 200mm have fallen with the heaviest seen around Southern Luzon.

As much as 100mm could still fall tonight and into tomorrow. Aside from rains, Invest 91W could also bring gusty winds and rough surf so please check on your airlines or ship company for possible delays or cancellations.

Due to proximity to land, 91W is not expected to strengthen into a cyclone. Nevertheless, the system will still bring unsettled weather for at least 36 more hours. As it exits into South China Sea by Wednesday, 91W's chances of development could increase.

We'll continue updating on you on the developments.

IR image from NOAA

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 111511

Tropical Update

2011-11-14T01:49:00.000-08:00

JTWC has dropped Invest 91W on their daily Weather Advisory meaning they are not expecting this LPA to strengthen anymore. However, as 91W approaches Visayas, it is expected to bring widespread rain showers tonight and into tomorrow. We are looking at around 100mm to fall within the next 24 hours which can certainly cause some flooding and landslides.

The disturbance will continue to move westward and could clear the Philippines by Tuesday. Some models are still hinting at a weak development for 91W once it reaches the South China Sea during the latter part of this week.

Rest of the Western Pacific remains quiet.

IR Image from NOAA

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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT111411

Tropical Update

2011-11-13T00:59:00.000-08:00

Invest 91W continues to move westward across the Philippine Sea. It is now within the vicinity of Palau which is roughly 1,000km east of Mindanao. Koror Airport continues to report decreasing atmospheric pressure (now around 1007mb) and widespread coverage of cumulonimbus clouds. Winds are not that strong, however.

An ASCAT pass earlier today suggests a somewhat elongated low level circulation center with winds of 20 to 30kph displaced 100 to 200km away from the center. The LPA is situated in an area of low to moderate wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. However, other ingredients necessary for full-fledged cyclogenesis such as convergence, vorticity, etc are not to sustain Tropical Storm development. Nevertheless, the system still has a chance of becoming a cyclone within the next few days, albeit at a slower pace. Computer models also agree on a weak depression moving through Visayas this week.

Recent developments have prompted the JTWC to raise the LPA's chances to "MEDIUM". We'll have more update in the coming days.

IR Analysis from NOAA showing the location of Invest 91W.

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 111311

Tropical Depression 24W Update #2 (FINAL)

2011-11-08T01:44:00.000-08:00

Tropical Depression 24W remains a very weak cyclone as it drifts across South China Sea. It was last located approximately 580km southeast of Hanoi or about 190km northeast of Da Nang; also 160km south of Hainan Island. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph gusting to 65kph. It is moving east northeastward at 15kph.

TD 24W is now on a weakening trend with the circulation center now fully exposed due to a significant increase in wind shear.Nevertheless, the storm is still bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rain across parts of Vietnam with amounts ranging from 100 to sometimes 200mm in 24 hours.

TD 24W is forecast to continue moving northeastward and will likely persist as a disturbance for the next 24 to 36 hours so continue to watch for heavy rain across Vietnam and Hainan. A trough is expected to scoop up and ultimately "kill" the system.

This is the final warning for Tropical Depression 24W.

IR Image from NRLMRY showing the exposed LLCC and the rain clouds associated with 24W currently affecting Northern and Central Vietnam as well as the island of Hainan.

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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 110811

Tropical Depression 24W Update #1

2011-11-07T01:31:00.000-08:00

A new Tropical Depression has formed today, nearly a month after the last storm--Banyan--moved across the South China Sea.

TD 24W was last located approximately 270 east of Da Nang in Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph gusting to 55kph. 24W is moving north northeastward at around 25kph. Latest IR image from NRLMRY shows CDO-like convection with very cold cloud tops blowing around the low level center. Outflow is spreading light to moderate rain across parts of Northern and Central Vietnam. These rains could bring up to 100mm in less than 24 hours so please be careful of flooding and landslides.

IR from NRLMRY

JTWC is forecasting 24W to continue moving generally northward. It could approach the island of Hainan as early as Tuesday afternoon (local time). It is not expected to intensify significantly due to projected increase in wind shear as well as future land interaction with Hainan. Nevertheless, it will still bring heavy rains and gusty winds across these region for the next 3 days.

Invest 99W, meanwhile, remains somewhat disorganized as it drifts around South China Sea, southwest of Taiwan. ASCAT pass suggests an elongated low level center with winds of up to 50kph. Wind shear near 99W ranges from 20 to 30kt which is very hostile for further development. JTWC is still keeping its "MEDIUM" rating for 99W, however.

99W is not expected to bring heavy rain across the Philippines anymore, expect for some scattered showers across extreme Northern Luzon.

IR analysis showing the location of 99W and 24W

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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 110711

Tropical Update

2011-11-06T01:43:00.000-07:00

It's been almost a month since our last update! The Pacific has been very quiet since.

Right now, however, we are watching two areas for possible tropical development. We have Invest 98W in the South China Sea and Invest 99W over Luzon.

Invest 98W has a developing low-level circulation center a few hundred kilometers east of Vietnam. ASCAT pass earlier today picked up the LLCC and is indicating winds of between 20 to 35kph. The low pressure area is in an area of low to moderate wind shear and slightly favorable sea temperatures. JTWC has upgraded its chances to "MEDIUM". Computer models are also showing a weak development out of this disturbance. The track is still too early to determine, though, due to the system still being premature.Nevertheless, expect enhanced rainfall across much of Vietnam and Southern Indochina.

Invest 99W, on the other hand, is now moving across Northern Luzon. Laoag Airport continues to report a drop in atmospheric pressure since this morning from a high of 1007mb down to 1003mb which could indicate that the center of the LPA is now passing through. Winds are still light, ranging from 10 to 30kph.The latest ASCAT pass is also suggesting a closed circulation center moving across Luzon. JTWC has kept 99W's chances to "LOW" due to proximity to land. Once it exits into the South China Sea, we could see better organization due to favorable shear and sea temperatures. Computer models not showing much development, however.

Furthermore, 99W is also bringing heavy rain across much of Luzon. Rainfall amounts of 100 to 150mm has been reported across Eastern and Central Luzon area. We expect rainy weather to continue here for another 2 to 3 days which could increase the chances for landslides and flooding.

IR Satellite Image from NRLMRY

We'll have another Tropical Update tomorrow.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 110611

Tropical Update

2011-10-15T01:04:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression Banyan (Ramon) has dissipated this morning due to strong wind shear caused by a trough that moved in from China. There is still a closed circulation, however, based on ASCAT data. Ship reports near the low pressure are indicating winds of 30 to 40kph. Those observations together with IR images from satellite do suggest that former-Banyan might still be hanging on for dear life. We'll just have to wait and see if conditions improve enough for it to re-strengthen again.

Another area we are watching is Invest 93W which is currently located approximately 450km northwest of Guam. Latest microwave data suggests banding near the low-level center. The most recent ASCAT data has not picked up strong winds, however. Convection is pretty good and conditions are somewhat favorable for further development. As we have mentioned yesterday, though, 93W doesn't have a lot of support from computer models.

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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 101511

Tropical Depression Banyan (Ramon) Update #6

2011-10-14T02:35:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression Banyan remains a very weak system as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 600km northwest of Manila or about 530km southeast of Hong Kong. Banyan is moving northward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds are at 50kpg gusting to 75kph.

PAGASA has now lowered all signal warnings associated with Banyan.

Banyan is struggling to consolidate and re-intensify due to wind shear in the South China Sea which has decreased over the past 6 hours. Agencies are still expecting this to regain Tropical Storm status, though, due to improved conditions in the next 2 days.

Banyan is forecast to continue moving northward due to a weakness in the Ridge but should eventually turn westward as another ridge forms along Southern China. Banyan is expected to track just south of Hainan by Monday and eventually make landfall along Central Vietnam by Tuesday as a weak Tropical Storm.

An area of disturbed weather has persisted approximately 300km east of Guam. This LPA, Invest 93W, has a partially exposed and weak low level circulation center. Convection is very weak at the moment but the whole Low Pressure itself is somewhat organized. The disturbance is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear (10-15 kt) and high sea surface temperatures. The system has very little model support with the CMC being the only global model that develops it. Nevertheless, we'll continue to watch the system as it continues to trek westward.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 101411

Tropical Depression Banyan (Ramon) Video Update

2011-10-13T01:54:00.000-07:00

Latest Video Update on Tropical Depression Banyan (Ramon) which is now moving away from the Philippines.

We'll have another update tomorrow (no Text for today).
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 101311

Tropical Depression Banyan (Ramon) Update #5 Brief

2011-10-12T09:30:00.000-07:00

Banyan (Ramon) has weakened to a Tropical Depression tonight. It was last located 100km west northwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro or about 100km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 55kph gusting to 75kph. Banyan is moving northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11pm, Signal #1 remains in effect for Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Lubang Island, Romblon, Southern Quezon, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Bataan, Southern Zambales, Metro Manila, Aklan, and Antique. Signal Warnings elsewhere have been lowered.

Latest Radar Image at Subic shows thick bands of widespread moderate to heavy rain now moving in to Southern Luzon and NCR area. Areas here will likely receive rainfall of 100 to even 200mm overnight.

You can view that Radar Image (from PAGASA) by clicking HERE

Banyan should continue moving northwestward and should move into the South China Sea by early tomorrow morning. It could be out of the PAR by Friday morning.

We'll have more update this afternoon.
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Issued (1630 UTC) 1230am PhT 101311

TS Banyan (Ramon) Update #4

2011-10-12T02:57:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Banyan (Ramon) is now moving over Sulu Sea just west of Panay Island. It was last located approximately 130km northwest of Iloilo City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph gusting to 85kph. Banyan is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal #2 for Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Southern Quezon, Burias Island, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Metro Manila, Panay Island, and Guimaras Island.

Most areas in Visayas and Northern Mindanao have already received 100 to 200mm or rain this past 24 hours. We are still expecting around 100mm to fall across Western Visayas and Southern Luzon tonight. Weather across Central and Eastern Visayas should begin to improve tonight and tomorrow. Southern Luzon, including Manila, will receive light to moderate rains with breezy conditions starting tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Banyan is forecast to continue moving west northwestward, maintaining weak tropical storm strength. It should be moving out of the Philippines by Thursday afternoon and could be completely out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday morning. It could intensify as it moves across the South China Sea due to weaker wind shear (Saturday). Based on JTWC's long range forecast, Banyan could hit Vietnam by early next week.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 101211

Tropical Storm Banyan (Ramon) Video Update

2011-10-12T02:11:00.000-07:00

Latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Banyan (Ramon).

Text update coming up in half an hour.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 101211

TS Banyan (Ramon) Update #3 Brief

2011-10-11T14:27:00.000-07:00

TS Banyan (Ramon) moving just east of Surigao. It maintains tropical storm strength and is moving northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am today, Signal #2 is in effect for Western Samar, Eastern Samar, Leyte Provinces, Biliran, Camotes Island, Northern Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Island, Camiguin Island, and Agusan Del Norte. Signal #1 for Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Southern Quezon, Catanduanes, Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Northern Samar,, Panay Island, Guimaras, Negros Provinces , Rest of Cebu , Siquijor Island, Misamis Oriental, and Agusan del Sur.

Banyan is forecast to affect the southern tip of Samar by 7am this morning and then continue towards Leyte by 12am. Heavy rain is now falling across much of Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Expect rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm in the next 12 hours.

We'll have more update regarding track and rainfall amounts in our afternoon update.
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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 101211

Tropical Storm Banyan (Ramon) Update #2 w/ Video

2011-10-11T01:27:00.000-07:00

23W (Bagyong Ramon) has intensified into a Tropical Storm--international name "Banyan". It was last located approximately 340km southeast of Surigao City. It is moving northwestward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 65kph gusting to 85kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Signal #1 for Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte Provinces, Bohol, Biliran, Camotes Island, Northern Cebu, Northern Negros, Northern Iloilo, Capiz, Masbate, Ticao Island, Surigao Del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Del Norte, Dinagat Island, and Camiguin Island.

These areas will receive widespread moderate to heavy rains with winds of up to 60kph. Conditions should begin to deteriorate tonight. We are actually already receiving 24-hour rainfall reports of 50 to 100mm across Cotabato, Lumbia, and Hinatuan in Mindanao. Furthermore, Cebu is already reporting light rain as of this moment. Total rainfall in this region could reach up to 300mm!

TS Banyan (Ramon) is forecast to continue moving northwestward. It could approach the Surigao Provinces (including Dinagat and Siargao Islands) by early tomorrow morning. It will then continue moving across the Visayas Region, passing through Leyte, Cebu, and Panay Island by Wednesday night. Banyan could reach Romblon and Mindoro Island by Thursday morning.

Our forecast track agrees with the model consensus and is in agreement with the latest JTWC forecast. We want to note that JMA is actually forecasting a slightly more northward track, bringing Banyan towards Samar and eventually into Southern Luzon (see Video for more details). Keep in mind that forecasts can change and we might have to fine tune our track so please stay updated!

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Video Update

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 101111

Tropical Depression 23W (Ramon) Update #1 w/ Video

2011-10-10T02:19:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression 23W (Bagyong Ramon) formed this morning west of Palau. It is now located approximately 670km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph gusting to 80kph. 23W is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has now raised Signal #1 for Surigao Del Norte, Surigao Del Sur, Siargao Island, and Dinagat Group of Islands.

It is forecast to continue moving westward under the influence of a strong Subtropical Ridge. It will continue intensifying and could become a Tropical Storm tomorrow. Typhoon-strength is unlikely at the moment due to proximity to land and somewhat strong wind shear near Mindanao. It could make landfall in Surigao Del Norte by tomorrow evening or very early Wednesday morning. 23W will then continue moving west northwestward across the Visayas Islands, remaining as a weak cyclone throughout.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Video Update

We'll have more update tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 101011

Tropical Update

2011-10-09T15:56:00.000-07:00

Invest 92W west of Palau is showing signs of improvement. JTWC has put out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for "HIGH" chance of becoming a cyclone within the next 24 hours. JMA, meanwhile, is already classifying this LPA as a depression.

VIS Image below shows the somewhat exposed circulation with the bulk of convective activity slightly displaced to the west. Wind shear is weak and sea surface temperatures are warm so we do expect this to continue slowly intensifying over the next couple of days.

VIS From NRLMRY

We'll have more info on this developing low pressure later this afternoon.
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Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 101011

Tropical Update

2011-10-06T01:28:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression Nalgae has dissipate earlier this morning as it tracked over Vietnam. It brought moderate rains with amounts running from 50 to 100mm. The remnants of Nalgae could still bring some scattered showers across southeast Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) although they will be light.

Invest 90W remains very weak east of Mindanao. JTWC still keeping "LOW" chance and computer models still showing weak development in the coming days.

Invest 91W is located in the South China Sea, southeast of Hainan. It's weak just like 90W and is in an area of low wind shear and cooler sea temperatures. Models are not really picking up on this system yet.

A weak tropical wave is moving just to the east of Luzon. It's disorganized although it does have some pretty strong convective activity. It will likely increase the chances of rain showers particularly along the Eastern portions (Cagayan, Isabela, and Batanes Islands) as well as the Cordillera Regions. This wave is not expected to develop either due to strong wind shear.

IR Image from NOAA

Those are the updates for today. No Video Updates. We'll have another Tropical Update (Text) tomorrow.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 100611

Tropical Depression Nalgae Update #15 w/ Video (Brief)

2011-10-05T02:47:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression Nalgae continues to weaken as it nears the coast of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 390km southeast of Hanoi or about 190km north northeast of Hue. It is moving west southwestward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased further to 45kph gusting to 70kph.

Nalgae is now largely disorganized and convective activity has significantly weakened as well. Nevertheless, it will still bring light to moderate rains across Central and Northern Vietnam and eventually into Laos and Thailand. We expect around 50 to 100mm of rain to fall tonight.

VIS from NRLMRY

Nalgae is forecast to make landfall by 1am tonight (Vietnam Time), approximately 400km south of Hanoi or just north of Hue. It will then move into Laos and should dissipate by tomorrow.

Invest 90W in the Philippine Sea remains very weak with a full-exposed low-level center. It is located approximately 600km east of Mindanao. Computer models are still developing this system into a weak depression sometime this weekend so we'll have to continue to watch.

VIS from NRLMRY

Video Update

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100511

Tropical Depression Nalgae Update #14 (Brief)

2011-10-04T14:15:00.000-07:00

Nalgae has weakened to a Tropical Depression as it moves closer to Vietnam. It was last located approximately 370km southeast of Hanoi and is moving westward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 55kph gusting to 80kph.

Radar from Phu Lien already showing widespread light to moderate rain approaching eastern and northeastern parts of Vietnam. As much as 100mm could fall today.

Radar courtesy of NCHMF, for more images click HERE

TD Nalgae is forecast to make landfall later tonight approximately 300km south of Hanoi, north of Hue. It will then rapidly dissipate as it interacts over land.

We'll have more update later today.
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Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 100511

TS Nalge Update #13 w/ Video (Landfall)

2011-10-04T02:28:00.000-07:00

Note: You'll find our Video Update at the end of this post.

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Former Bagyong Quiel) has now made landfall in southeastern Hainan. It was last located approximately 150km south southwest of Haikou or about 60km north of Sanya, or about 490km southeast of Hanoi. It has accelerated to 25kph moving northwest. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75kph gusting to 110kph.

TS Nalgae continues to weaken due to strong wind shear and land interaction. It has brought rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm across Hainan and Leizhou Peninsula. Haikou Airport also recorded wind gusts of up to 80kph earlier today. Winds across Eastern Hainan, have-for the most part-weakened as the storm continues to pull away. Nevertheless, we still have some scattered light to moderate rain bands from Nalgae as shown in this radar image. There could still be 50 to 100mm of additional rain for tonight.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

Latest forecast for Nalgae remains unchanged. We are still expecting it to make landfall in Vietnam later tomorrow night or very early Wednesday morning 350km south of Hanoi. Due to land interaction there is a chance it could weaken to Tropical Depression before making landfall. Either way, Nalgae should still bring moderate to heavy rain across parts of Vietnam and Laos. It is forecast to dissipate by Thursday or Friday across Laos/Thailand area.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Another system we are watching is Invest 90W located northwest of Palau or about 600km east of Visayas. Due to weaker wind shear today, 90W has shown improvements with regards to low-level banding and overall convective activity. You can see in the VIS Image below of the greater cloud cover and somewhat cyclonic flow.

VIS from NRLMRY

Computer models are forecasting this to become a very weak cyclone by as early as Friday. Most of the models bring 90W toward the northwest which could put it to NE Luzon by early next week. Due to stronger wind shear near the Philippines, we are not really expecting 90W to develop into anything significant although it does have a chance of becoming a Tropical Storm. As always, 90W could bring rains towards the Eastern half of the Philippines, from Visayas towards Luzon, especially if it develops.

Right now though, it is still in the early stages of development and we should not worry ourselves too much--just yet. We'll continue monitoring this storm for possible developments.

Video Update

Another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100411

Tropical Storm Nalgae Update #12 w/ Video

2011-10-03T02:22:00.000-07:00

Note: You'll find the Video Update at the end of this post.

Tropical Storm Nalgae has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility last night. It is now approaching the island of Hainan. It was last located approximately 400km east southeast from the Chinese Province or about 520km south southwest of Hong Kong. It is moving westward at 15kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100kph gusting to 130kph.

Latest VIS Image shows the partially exposed circulation with the main convective activity being displaced to the west due to the stronger wind shear over South China Sea. Nalgae still has a fairly decent organization with strong convective activity, despite the displacement.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The radar image below from CMA shows the outer rain bands from Nalgae now moving into the province of Hainan. Majority of the heavy rains are still offshore although light precipitation is now affecting much of the island. We expect around 50mm tonight which will then rise significantly tomorrow as Nalgae brushes the southern part. As much as 300mm of rain could fall in Hainan for the next 24 hours.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

We have shifted our forecast track just a little bit, following the consensus among weather agencies and computer models. Nalgae should continue moving westward at a speed of around 15 to 20kph. It could brush the southern half of Hainan by Tuesday afternoon, passing through the city of Sanya by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. It should then continue to move into the southern part of Gulf of Tonkin, weakening along the way due to increasing wind shear. Nalgae is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam by Thursday afternoon, just north of Hue or about 400km south of Hanoi. After making landfall, Nalgae should then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression and could dissipate over Laos/Thailand area by as early as Friday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

No other tropical systems exist in the Western Pacific although computer models are really keen on developing a weak system by this weekend. There is strong wind shear over the Philippine Sea at the moment so this cyclone development could take a while. Nevertheless, that ITCZ could definitely spawn a weak system anytime and that is why we are here to give you the latest updates. For now though, enjoy the quieter weather there in the Philippines!

Video Update

We'll have another update by tomorrow afternoon.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100311

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Quiel) Update #11

2011-10-02T02:42:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Nalgae continues to weaken as it moves away from Luzon. It was last located approximately 540km west northwest of Manila. It is moving westward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 110kph gusting to 140kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has completely dropped all Signal Warnings across the country. Nalgae is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight.

IR Image below shows the ragged-looking Nalgae. It doesn't look symmetrical either although it is still maintaing some strong convective activity, particularly near the center and also the southwestern quadrant. North and eastern sides sort of suffering due to drier air, subsidence, and stronger wind shear.

IR from NRLMRY

We are forecasting Nalgae to continue moving westward across the South China Sea, maintaining Tropical Storm intensity up to landfall in Vietnam. As far as the track goes, some models take it towards Hainan while the others take Nalgae towards Central Vietnam. Our forecast takes the middle track and we are basically bringing Nalgae just south of Hainan by Wednesday morning. It should then make landfall in Central Vietnam by late Wednesday night (local time), approximately 450km south of Hanoi. It will then weaken to a tropical depression as it tracks into Laos and Thailand.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Invest 90W, east of the Philippines, remains very weak and disorganized. We are not really confident on a future storm (named "Ramon") to form this week, contrary to what PAGASA is saying. Just always make sure to stop by for the latest warnings here. We do want to note though, that computer models are sort of developing a very weak system southwest of Guam by this weekend.

We will have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100211

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Quiel) Video Update

2011-10-02T02:16:00.000-07:00

Latest Video Update on Nalgae (Quiel) which has just been downgraded into a tropical storm. It is continuing to move away from Luzon and could be completely out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by later tonight.

We'll have the accompanying text update in half an hour.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100211

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #10

2011-10-01T16:03:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nalgae continues to weaken as it moves away from Luzon. It was last located approximately 220km west northwest of Dagupan City or about 350km northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 150kph gusting to 185kph which is equivalent to a strong Category 1 Typhoon. Nalgae has slowed down and is moving westward at a speed of 20kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA still has Signal #1 for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Zambales , and Pangasinan. All other Signal Warnings in other provinces have now been lowered.

IR Image shows how Nalgae has suffered due to land interaction. Still maintains a strong convective activity but it does look really ragged. Wind shear is not that favorable and waters in the South China Sea is a little bit cooler compared to the Philippine Sea.

IR from NRLMRY

While we do expect Nalgae to continue weakening, it will probably maintain that Typhoon intensity up until landfall in Central Vietnam by early Wednesday morning (Local time). It will then weaken to a tropical storm and eventually dissipate over Indochina by Friday.

We'll have another update later today.
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Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 100211

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #9

2011-10-01T02:40:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) is nov exiting the island of Luzon and into the South China Sea. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 185kph gusting to 240kph after making landfall near Dinapigue, Isabela earlier this morning. Nalgae is now moving westward at a speed of 30kph. The center was last located approximately at these distances:

50km northwest of Baguio
20km west northwest of San Fernando, La Union
100km south southwest of Vigan
70km north northwest of Dagupan
50km northeast of Bolinao
240km north northwest of Manila

As of 5pm today, Signal #3 is still up for Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasina. Signal #2 is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, and Pampanga. Signal #1 for Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Rizal, Cavite, Bataan, Bulacan , and Metro Manila.

The VIS Image below shows the circulation of Nalgae now moving over water. The storm still remains symmetrical with good outflow although the wind field is really small. Laoag Airport never recorded Tropical Storm sustained winds, and neither did Subic Airport (the two closest reporting airports near Nalgae). Compare that last week when these two airports were recording tropical storm and even typhoon-force winds during Nesat's passage over Luzon.

VIS from NRLMRY

The IR Image also shows the CDO remains organized although cloud tops have significantly warmed due to land interaction. The whole storm is ragged-looking but still carries characteristics typical to strong typhoons moving over land. This activity has really brought heavy rains across parts of Northern and Central Luzon. In fact, Tuguegarao has already reported around 150mm of rain and we are still expecting 50 to 150mm throughout the night.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The good news is that Nalgae is now quickly moving away from Luzon. We expect it to be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by as early as tomorrow morning. The South China Sea is not really conducive for intensification so we think Nalgae will continue to weaken as it moves westward. However, it is likely that it'll maintain Typhoon Intensity as it makes landfall near Central Vietnam by Wednesday afternoon (local time).

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 100111

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Video Update

2011-10-01T02:08:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) has weakened to a Category 3 moving over La Union in Luzon into the South China Sea. It was last located approximately 10km northwest of the city of San Fernando. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph gusting to 240kph. Nalgae is moving westward at 30kph.

We will have the Text Update in about half an hour which will include the latest (5pm) Signal Warnings from PAGASA.

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100111

Super Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #8 (LANDFALL)

2011-09-30T19:22:00.000-07:00

Nalgae (Quiel) has intensified into Super Typhoon Statues with maximum sustained winds of around 240kph gusting to 295kph. It has made landfall along the coast of Southern Isabela, approximately 50km southeast of Ilagan City. It is currently moving westward at 25kph.

You can see in this IR Image that the center of the storm is now moving quickly over Isabela, near Dinapigue. It still has very strong convective activity and it does look like the eyewall is still intact. Nalgae should start to weaken now that it is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Forecast timeline remains the same although there could be 10 to 20km discrepancies depending on the path and speed of Nalgae. Typhoon force winds extend up to 60km wide with the strongest of winds (more than 210kph) extend to about 15km away from the center.
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Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 100111

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #7 (LANDFALL)

2011-09-30T17:08:00.000-07:00

We apologize for the late update.

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) has quickly intensified over the night and is now a Category 4 typhoon! Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph gusting to 240kph. Nalgae is moving just south of west at 30kph. Here are the last locations for Nalgae:

95km ESE of Ilagan
160km SE of Tuguegarao
155km ENE of Santiago
110km NE of Casiguran
330km NE of Manila

As of 5am today, PAGASA has raised Signal #3 for Isabela, Northern Aurora Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan. Signal #2 for Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bulacan, Northern Quezon, and Polillo Island. Signal #1 for Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Rizal, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, Babuyan Is., Calayan Group of Is., and Metro Manila.

Based on the IR Image below, it does look like Nalgae is still strengthening and could actually have higher winds than what is currently being listed here.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest Radar Image from Baler shows Nalgae's well-defined eye and the bands of moderate rain wrapping around the storm. As you can see, much of the light rain is now affecting Isabela and Southern Cagayan. Conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout today and areas here could see more than 200mm of rain by the time all is said and done. Typhoon force winds extend up to 90km away from the center (120kph). The strongest of winds (more than 210kph) extend up to 15km away from the center.

Baler Radar from PAGASA

Here's the forecast timeline:

9-10am: Making landfall along Southern Isabela, approx. 50km southeast of Ilagan
10-11am: Moving along Isabela, 35km northeast of Santiago; weakening to Category 3
11am-12pm: Moving over Ifugao, approx. 30km east southeast of Lagawe; weakening to Category 2
12-1pm: Moving over Ifugao, approx. 20km west southwest of Lagawe
1-2pm: Moving into Benguet/Mt. Province, approx. 40km north of Baguio; weakening to Category 1
2-3pm: Moving into Southern Ilocos Sur, approx. 40km southwest of Candon
3-4pm: Over Ilocos Sur, approx. 70km south of Vigan
4-5pm: Exiting into South China Sea, approx. 40km northwest of San Fernando

Remember those are only approximates based on Nalgae's present movement. Always tune in to your local news for official forecasts and advisories. Next update will be around 2pm this afternooon. Stay Safe!
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Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 100111

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #6

2011-09-30T02:59:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) continues to quickly intensify over the Philippine Sea. The center was last located approximately 650km northeast of Manila, 510km east southeast of Aparri, or about 490km east of Tuguegarao. Nalgae is moving westward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 175kph gusting to 220kph. This makes Nalgae a Category 2 typhoon.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has now raised Signal #3 for Cagayan and Isabela. Signal #2 for Northern Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Group of Islands, and Babuyan Group of Island. Signal #1 for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Abra.

Latest IR Image shows the ever improving structure of Nalgae with strong convective activity and the eye becoming more organized.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nalgae is forecast to continue intensifying and could become a Major Category 3 Typhoon later tonight. It will likely maintain that intensity as it makes landfall tomorrow in the Cagayan/Isabela Border. Nalgae will then move through these provinces and into Kalinga-Apayo, Abra and weakening to a Cat 1 by the afternoon, and exit through Ilocos Norte by Saturday evening. It should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

Forecast Timeline

9-10am: Landfall in Cagayan/Isabela, around 50km east of Tuguegarao
10-11am: Moving over Tuguegarao as a Category 2
11-12pm: Moving over Kalinga-Apayao, north of Tabuk
12-1pm: Weakening to a Category 1 over the Cordillera Mountains
1-2pm: Moving over Abra
2-3pm: Moving northeast of Bangued
3-4pm: Moving over Ilocos Norte
4-5pm: Moving 50km south of Laoag
5-6pm: Exiting into South China Sea

Please remember that timeline above is only based on the current forecasts and present movement of Nalgae. Always make sure to listen to the news for OFFICIAL warnings and advisories specifically for your area.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay Safe!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 093011

Tropical Storm Nesat Update #20 (Landfall)

2011-09-30T02:45:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Nesat (Former Bagyong Pedring) has made landfall in Northeastern Vietnam roughly 3 hours ago. It is now moving near Hanoi, located approximately 20km east of the city. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 100kph gusting to 130kph and will continue decreasing as Nesat moves across land. It is moving westward at 20kph.

Latest radar out of Phu Lien shows the widespread light to moderate rains with bands of heavy rain. These rains will likely bring 100 to 200mm of rain for the next 24 hours with isolated amounts of up to or more than 300mm.

Radar from NCHMF, for more click HERE

VIS Image shows the structure of the storm has deteriorated as it interacts with land.

Nesat is forecast to continue rapidly weakening as it moves westward. It will move away from Hanoi tonight but will continue bringing moderate rains and gusty winds for much of Northern Vietnam. Nesat is expected to weaken to a depression tomorrow morning and could dissipate by tomorrow afternoon over the Vietnam/Laos Border. Remnants will still bring rains for Laos and the rest of Indochina.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 093011

TS Nesat | TY Nalgae (Quiel) Video Update

2011-09-30T02:12:00.000-07:00

Video Update for Nesat and Nalgae. Tropical Storm Nesat has made landfall in NE Vietnam a few hours ago and is now moving over Hanoi. Typhoon Nesat (Quiel), on the other hand, is intensifying over the Philippine Sea. It will probably make landfall tomorrow morning over Cagayan/Isabela Area as a strong Category 3 typhoon.

Please wait for our Text Update in about half an hour which will include the latest Signal Warnings (5pm PhT) from PAGASA.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 093011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #5

2011-09-29T15:48:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) has quickly intensified last night as it moves ever closer toward Luzon. It is now located approximately 1,000km east northeast of Manila and is moving westward at 25kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph gusting to 195kph.

As of 5am today, PAGASA has begun to raise Signal #1 for Cagayan, Isabela, and the Babuyan Group of Islands.

Latest IR image shows the very strong convective activity indicated by cold cloud tops. You can also make out the center of the storm due to the warm spot.

IR from NRLMRY

Despite the loss of excellent outflow regions, we are still expecting Nalgae to continue intensifying today due to weak wind shear and very warm waters over the Philippine Sea. We are now expecting a peak intensity of around 100 to 110 knots which would put it to the Category 3 typhoon status. Computer model and agency forecasts continue to shift their track to the south. We are still forecasting a landfall somewhere in Cagayan by Saturday afternoon. Nalgae will then weaken to a Cat 1 as it crosses Northern Luzon. It should exit through Ilocos Norte by early Sunday morning.

We'll have more update later this afternoon.
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Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 093011

Tropical Storm Nesat Update #19

2011-09-29T15:40:00.000-07:00

Nesat has now weakened into a tropical storm as it crossed the northern portions of Hainan. It is now moving over the Gulf of Tonkin, located approximately 320km east southeast of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 100kph gusting to 135kph. Nesat is currently moving westward at 20kph.

Latest rainfall reports out of Hainan indicated amounts of 100 to 200mm with some areas reporting as high as 300mm (Danxian). Haikou airport also reported wind gusts in excess of 160kph at the height of Nesat's onslaught yesterday. We have still yet to receive news of damage in that region.

IR Image shows the storm has become more fragmented and the coverage a whole lot smaller. The system is still maintaining some pretty strong convective activity.

IR from NRLMRY

Radar image from Vietnam shows bands of moderate rain now approaching the northeaster coast. The precipitation could drop more than 200mm today across Northern Vietnam.

Radar from NCHMF, for more click HERE

Nesat should make landfall later this afternoon, approximately 130km east of Hanoi. We'll have another update later today.
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Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 093011

Typhoon Nalgae (Quiel) Update #4

2011-09-29T00:41:00.000-07:00

Nalgae (Quiel) has been upgraded into a typhoon today. The storm was last located approximately 1,320km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Nalgae has also accelerated as it moves across the Philippine Sea--west southwestward at a speed of 20kph.

Latest VIS shows the location in relation to the Philippines. The outflow to the north has been cut off due to the TUTT Cell moving away to the east. Nevertheless. Nalgae maintains an amazing presentation for a small storm and has actually sported an eye earlier this morning.

VIS from NRLMRY

This IR image also shows the intense convective activity within the center with very cold cloud tops. The dry air and subsidence to the northwest has begun to fill which is allowing Nalgae to somewhat increase in size and look more symmetrical on the satellite.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The following microwave image shows what is happening under the cloud shield of Nalgae. You can kinda make out the center of the storm with the eyewall open to the south. The MWI is still showing some pretty intense activity around the northern periphery.

MWI from NRLMRY

Typhoon Nalgae should continue intensifying as it moves westward due to weak wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. It could reach Category 2 typhoon intensity and peak just below Cat 3 before making landfall in Northeast Cagayan by Saturday night. Computer models are now beginning to converge on a solution which would take Nalgae towards Northern Luzon this weekend. Our track is positioned slightly south of the consensus to account for the recent southward movement of the storm. Nalgae will then cross Luzon, weakening to a Cat 1. It could regain intensity as it exits into the South China Sea by early next week.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We won't have any video updates for today. Next updates will be tomorrow.
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Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 092911

Typhoon Nesat Update #18 (Landfall)

2011-09-29T00:29:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat is now making landfall in the northeastern part of Hainan Province. It was last located approximately 70km east of Haikou, 400km southwest of Hong Kong, or 540km east southeast of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving westward at 25kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY showing the eye approaching Hainan

METAR reports from Haikou indicate a maximum wind gusts of around 130kph two hours ago. Winds have since weakened and the recent pressure reading of 973mb indicate that the eye is now passing near the area. This last radar image from Hainan also confirms the landfall and the eye passage over the island. You can see the heaviest of rain is located along the eyewall, particularly on the southern half of the storm. Hainan has received at least 50mm of rain so far and we are still expecting around 100 to 200mm of rain to fall tonight and into tomorrow.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

The IR image also shows the large circulation of Nesat. It is still maintaining a somewhat symmetric organization with flaring convection mainly on the southern periphery.

IR from NRLMRY

Even Hong Kong, which is around 400km away is still experiencing tropical storm conditions and Signal Force 8 is still in effect throughout the region there. Rain has let up now and radar from HK is only picking scattered rain squalls. Weather should begin to improve there tonight.

Radar from HKO, for more images click HERE

Nesat is forecast to skirt along the northern coast of Hainan, affecting the island including Leizhou Peninsula and Guangdong Province. It will then exit into the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow and will make another landfall in Northeastern Vietnam by Friday evening as a Tropical Storm. It will pass just south of Hanoi and should weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We won't have any video updates for today. Next update will be tomorrow.
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Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 092911

Tropical Storm Nalgae (Quiel) Update #3

2011-09-28T15:19:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Nalgae has finally entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been given a local name of "Quiel" by PAGASA. The storm was last located approximately 1,530km east northeast of Manila. It has intensified last night and now has maximum sustained winds of 100kph gusting to around 130kph. Nalgae is moving just south of west at a speed of 10kph.

Latest IR Image shows the improving structure of Nesat with cooling cloud tops and well-established poleward outflow. It has actually exhibited an established eyewall on the microwave image. The storm has also grown in size and now has a diameter of around 450km. The TUTT to the northwest that is inhibiting outflow on that side due to dry air and subsidence seems to be filling in and we should see Nesat continue intensifying for the next 2 days or so.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nalgae will continue moving westward across the Philippine Sea. It could be upgraded to a typhoon as early as tonight. It could peak at Category 2 strength before making landfall in extreme Northern Luzon by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time).

Another update coming up later this afternoon.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092911

Typhoon Nesat Update #17

2011-09-28T15:10:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat has accelerated to the northwest and could make landfall in Hainan later tonight! It was last located approximately 380km south southwest of Hong Kong or about 280km east southeast of Haikou, Hainan. Nesat remains a Category 1 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 120kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image shows the vigorous convective activity with nice banding that surrounds the center.

IR from NRLMRY

Based on the latest data, Nesat is expected to make landfall on the northeastern coast of Hainan, approximately 50km east of Haikou. It could still intensify before landfall although it likely will not exceed Cat 1 status.

Hong Kong, despite being more than 300km away from the center is currently experiencing tropical storm conditions with squally rain showers. Image below from Hong Kong Observatory shows the rainbands just south of the area.

Hainan is also beginning to feel the outer rain bands from Nesat. Conditions will begin deteriorating over the next few hours, with the strongest of winds being felt later this afternoon and into the night. Please be wary of potential storm surges as well.

Radar Image from HKO, for more images click HERE

This latest radar image from CMA shows the rain bands from Nesat now moving into Hainan. Widespread light to moderate rains with pockets of heavy rain could bring rainfall amounts of up to 250mm or more in 24 hours.

Radar from CMA, for more images click HERE

Nesat will continue moving northwestward and turn more to the west. It will pass through the northern portions of Hainan and affecting much of the province, including Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China. It will then exit into Gulf of Tonkin early Friday morning. Nesat is forecast to make another landfall, this time in Northeastern Vietnam by late Friday evening.

We'll have more update later today.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092911

Typhoon Nesat Update #16

2011-09-28T02:45:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat has now moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 650km northwest of Manila or about 530km south southeast of Hong Kong. Nesat has weakened slightly and maximum sustained winds are now down to 120kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving westward at 20kph.

PAGASA has finally lowered all signal warnings in the Philippines. Weather there should continue improving and much of the country should experience good weather for at least 2 days, expect for some scattered showers brought about the SW Monsoon and also scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.

Nesat continues to exhibit a very large circulation with strong convective activity particularly in the eastern half. As we have mentioned earlier, Nesat suffered greatly with land interaction with Luzon. However, recent trends show that it might be recovering and that it could re-intensify again soon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Nesat is forecast to continue moving west northwestward, passing well south of Hong Kong. It could make landfall in Hainan by Friday afternoon (local time). We are not expecting Nesat to intensify back into Category 2 anymore although it could still regain some strength and could make landfall with winds of up to 150kph. It all depends how Nesat re-organizes its structure. Conditions are slightly favorable for intensification anyway.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow. For info on TS Nalgae, please refer to our separate post.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092811

Tropical Storm Nalgae Update #2

2011-09-28T02:37:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Nalgae continues to strengthen as it slowly moves toward the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 1,720km east northeast of Manila. It is moving westward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph gusting to 105kph. Nalgae should enter the PAR tomorrow.

Latest IR image show convective activity remaining primarily near the center, as well as improving outflow. You can also see in this image how small this storm is with a diameter of just around 300km!

IR Image from NRLMRY

The accompanying microwave image shows an eyewall that is nearly established on all quadrants! Forecast agencies might actually be underestimating this small storm right now.

Microwave from NRLMRY

Nesat is forecast to slowly intensify over the next 3 days as it moves across the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It could peak at around Category 2 typhoon before making landfall in Extreme Northern Luzon (around Cagayan and Ilocos Norte by Sunday afternoon (Philippine Time).

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092811

Typhoon Nesat | TS Nalgae Video Update

2011-09-28T02:14:00.000-07:00

This is the latest video update for Typhoon Nesat and Tropical Storm Nalgae. We'll have our text update coming up in about half an hour.

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092811

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #15

2011-09-27T14:22:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) weakens as it continues to move away from Luzon. It was last located approximately 480km northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 130kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph and should exit the PAR later today.

As of 5am today, PAGASA have lowered signal warnings for some areas. Signal #2 is still in effect, though, for Zambales, La Union , and Pangasinan. Signal #1 for Bataan, Pampanga, Benguet, Tarlac, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Ilocos Norte.

These areas could still see some light to moderate rains, rough surf, and strong gusty winds throughout this morning. Rainfall reports so far from Luzon are around 150 to 250mm. Some areas received more than 300mm including Subic which actually reported a 24-hr rain total of more than 400mm! Conditions should begin to improve, however, for most parts of the Philippines. The SW Monsoon, however, will still bring scattered showers through parts of Luzon and Visayas.

IR image shows the land interaction with Luzon has really disrupted Nesat's organization. We are still seeing some intense convective activity on the southern half although the northern half is now completely fragmented.

IR from NRLRMY

We are still expecting Nesat to re-intensify today due to somewhat favorable conditions. It could likely reach a secondary peak of about Category 2 status. Forecasts continue to bring Nesat towards Hainan by Friday.

We'll have more update later this afternoon. Our update for TS Nalgae (22W) will also be released by that time.
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Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 092811

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #14

2011-09-27T02:33:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) is now over water and is quickly moving away from Luzon. The center was last located approximately 90km northwest of Baguio City or about 280km northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kpg gusting to 195kph. Nesat is moving westward at around 30kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal #3 for Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, and Pangasinan. Signal #2 for Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Zambales. Signal #1 for Babuyan, Cagayan including Babuyan, and Calayan group of islands, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, and Metro Manila.

Rainfall reports so far range from 150 to 200mm in Central and Southern (Bicol) Luzon area. Reports of 100 to 150mm, on the other hand, in Northern Luzon Regions. Winds have died down, for the most part, over NCR and Eastern Luzon. We are still seeing some strong winds and heavy rain being reported across Western Luzon, particularly in Zambales and the Ilocos Region. These areas could still continue experiencing tropical storm-force winds and get 50 to 100mm of rain tonight. Conditions should begin to improve for much of Luzon tomorrow.

Weather conditions from PAGASA and WMO as of 3pm today.

Latest VIS image shows the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is now quickly exiting Luzon.There are still plenty of cloud cover though for much of Luzon. You can also see the inflow and the influence of the SW Monsoon affecting Visayas.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The IR Image also showing the core has remained intact. Cloud tops have warmed and the storm has become fragmented as a result of land interaction with the Sierra Madre and Cordillera Mountains. The system also shows the convection still affecting Central and Southern Luzon with the SW Monsoon affecting Palawan, Visayas, and even Northern Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TY Nesat will continue moving across the South China Sea and could regain intensity just below Cat 3 status. It will exit the PAR tomorrow and will pass well south of Hong Kong by Wednesday night. Computer models and forecasting agencies are bringing Nesat towards Hainan by early Friday as a Category 1 Typhoon.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

If you have any storm reports, please feel free share it with us.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092711

Tropical Depression 22W Update #1 (NEW)

2011-09-27T02:16:00.000-07:00

A new cyclone has formed just this afternoon in the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 22W was last located approximately 970km northwest of Guam. It is currently about 300km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph gusting to 85kph. 22W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

VIS Image shows the impressive organization of 22W with good banding, convection over the center, and excellent ouflow. It definitely looks good for a tropical depression.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The accompanying Microwave image shows the banding that we mentioned above. There does seem to be sort of an eyewall beginning to take shape, particularly on the northeastern periphery.

MWI from NRLMRY

Conditions are favorable for continued development and we may actually see 22W be upgraded into a Tropical Storm later tonight. As I said though, the system is still too far from the PAR and we are not really expecting any direct effects until maybe this weekend. Among the computer models, ECMWF is the most aggressive in terms of development. The said models is taking 22W westward into either Taiwan or Northern Luzon. Please remember that we are talking maybe 4 to 5 days into the future. These forecasts can and do change.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Please refer to our separate posts for updates on TY Nesat and TD Haitang.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092711

Tropical Depression Haitang Update #8 (FINAL)

2011-09-27T02:08:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression Haitang is now beginning to dissipate over Vietnam. It made landfall earlier this morning and is now currently located approximately 470km south of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45kph gusting to 70kph. Haitang is moving westward at 20kph.

VIS Image shows that the center is no longer discernible. The storm has become fragmented now due to land interaction.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Nevertheless, Haitang is still exhibiting some pretty intense convective activity that could bring moderate to heavy rains across Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. Latest rainfall reports from Vietnam show rain amounts of 50 to 100mm. We expect maybe another 50mm to fall tonight. Same amounts are forecast for Laos.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Haitang is forecast to begin dissipating tonight over Laos. Its remnants, however, will still bring widespread showers across Indochina for the next few days; remember that this will also enhance some monsoonal flow into the region.

JMA and JTWC have given their final updates for Haitang. Likewise, this will also be our final update for this system. For updates on TD 22W and Typhoon Nesat, please refer to our separate posts.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092711

Video Update (Nesat, Haitang, 22W)

2011-09-27T01:47:00.000-07:00

Latest video update on a very busy Western Pacific as we are currently tracking THREE systems! We have Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) now moving out of Luzon, TD Haitang beginning to dissipate over Vietnam, and a newly-formed cyclone well east of the Philippines-TD 22W.

If you have any storm reports (video, photos, etc) feel free to share it with us!

Text Updates for these three systems are coming up in about half an hour.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 092711

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #13

2011-09-26T21:00:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) continues to slowly weaken as it begins to be severely affected by the Sierra Madre and Cordillera Mountain Ranges. The storm was last located approximately 220km north of Manila or about 50km northeast of Baguio. Maximum sustained winds are now around 165kph gusting to 195kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11am today, Signal Warning #3 from PAGASA is in effect for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Viscaya, and Pangasinan. Signal #2 for Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Zambales, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Bataan, and Metro Manila. Signal # is up for Babuyan, Calayan group of Islands, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Rizal, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang Island, and Cavite.

Typhoon-force winds (more than 120kph) extend to about 60km away from the center while tropical storm-force winds (less than 120kph) extend as far as 250km away from the center. The closes reporting station-Laoag-is indicating winds of up to 50kph with rapidly decreasing pressure. NAIA is also reporting wind gusts of up to 80kph.

Latest VIS Image shows that the circulation is still pretty much intact. Convective activity remains strong although cloud tops have warmed due to land interaction.

VIS from NRLMRY

Rain reports so far indicate around 100mm to 200mm of rain has fallen for parts of Bicol and Southern Luzon (including Manila). Rainfall amounts in the north could likely surpass that with amounts between 150 to 250mm or even as high as 300mm. Storm surges are also being reported for much of Eastern Luzon. The same thing goes for the Western seaboard and we are actually receiving reports from Manila showing very strong surf and high waves from Manila Bay which have inundated the adjacent Roxas Boulevard. As expected this storm has cancelled schools, flights, sea-land-and rail travel. It's best to stay at home for today.

Typhoon Nesat should maintain its typhoon intensity as it crosses Luzon although it could weaken to a Category 1 before exiting out into sea. It should pass just north of Baguio City later this afternoon and will cross into La Union by the early evening hours, eventually moving into South China Sea.

We'll have another update coming up later this afternoon. If you have weather reports in your area, you can send them in including photos and videos to our email: philippineweather@yahoo.com

Stay safe!
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Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 092711

Tropical Depression Haitang Update #7 Brief

2011-09-26T20:48:00.000-07:00

Haitang has weakened to Tropical Depression as it moves over Central Vietnam. It was last located approximately 120km west northwest of Da Nang or about 450km south of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 55kph gusting to 85kph. Haitang is moving westward at 20kph.

TD Haitang made landfall earlier this morning and is currently across Vietnam. Convective activity remains strong and is beginning to affect Laos. Latest rain reports from Vietnam indicate rainfall amounts of around 100mm. We expect another 50 to 100mm of rain to fall today.

VIS from NRLMRY

Haitang will continue moving westward and will eventually move into Laos. It should dissipate later tonight although its remnants will continue bringing rains across parts of Indochina.
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Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 092711

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #12 Brief

2011-09-26T18:05:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) is now moving over the Isabela-Aurora Border, approximately 30km north northwest of Casiguran, Aurora or about 220km northeast of Manila. Nesat has weakened slightly to Category 2 Status with maximum sustained winds decreasing to about 175kph gusting to 210kph. It is moving westward at 20kph.

Latest VIS Image here shows the center of Nesat is now cloud-covered as it interacts with land. Convective activity remains pretty strong and much of Luzon right now is experiencing Tropical Storm-Force winds. Typhoon-force winds, on the other hand, extends to about 60km away from the center.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Rainfall amounts so far in Bicol and Southern Luzon range from 100 to 200mm. We should see similar amounts in Northern Luzon, some areas could receive upwards of up to 300mm or more, particularly near the Sierra Madre Mountains and the Mountain Province/Benguet/Ifugao Area.

We'll have more updates regarding track later on our afternoon update.
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Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 092711

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #11 Brief (LANDFALL)

2011-09-26T15:17:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) is now approaching the coast of the Aurora/Isabela Border, roughly 30km north of Casiguran. It has rapidly intensified over the past 6 hours and has attained Category 3 Major Typhoon Status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

Latest IR Image shows the well established eye (supported by an earlier radar image from Baler: see our previous post) is now moving over the coast of Luzon. You can also see the bright yellow returns which indicate very intense convection which could bring moderate to heavy rains and strong typhoon-force winds.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon force winds extend up to 80km away from the center: this includes Northern Aurora (towns of Dilasag, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, and the city of Casiguran) and also Southern Isabela (Dilasag, Dinapigue, and Palanan).

As of 5am today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #3 for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Cagayan, Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Viscaya, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and Zambales. Signal #2 for Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Polillo is., Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Lubang is., Babuyan , Calayan group of islands, and Metro Manila. Signal #1 for Batanes, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Burias is., Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Southern Quezon, Catanduanes, Calamian group of is., Romblon group of islands.

Nesat will continue moving across Isabela and into Quirino Province later today. It will then move across Nueva Vizcaya, and Benguet later this afternoon. It will pass less than 100km north of Baguio by tonight.

We'll have more update later this afternoon.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092711

Tropical Storm Haitang Update #6 (LANDFALL)

2011-09-26T15:03:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Haitang is about to make landfall near Da Nang, Vietnam, approximately 550km south of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph gusting to 90kph. Haitang is moving westward at 20kph.

Radar image below shows widespread light to moderate rains.

Radar from NCHMF, for more images click HERE

IR Image shows very cold cloud tops, indicative of intense convective activity moving over much of Central Vietnam. This will bring widespread rains of as much as 300mm or even more.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Haitang will continue moving westward across Vietnam and should weaken to a depression later this morning. It could dissipate over Laos later tonight. In fact, JTWC has given their Final Warning for Haitang. We will continue issuing updates until JMA stops.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 092711

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #10 Brief (LANDFALL)

2011-09-26T12:56:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) is quickly intensifying just before it makes landfal in Aurora. It was last located approximately 60km east of Casiguran, Aurora and is moving west northwestward at 20kph. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph gusting to 205kph. Nesat is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

I repeat: Typhoon Nesat is about to make landfall near or at Casiguran, Aurora in about two hours or less.

We have the latest radar image from PAGASA of Typhoon Nesat as seen on the Baler Radar. This was taken roughly an hour ago and you can see the well defined center with the eyewall about to move in to Aurora. You can also see the coverage of light to moderate rains. The heaviest rain bands are located on the southern eyewall of the storm. Expect 10-20mm/hr rainfall rates with some pockets of heavy 30 to 40mm/hr rates.

We'll have another update later at 6am. Stay Safe!
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Issued (1945 UTC) 345am PhT 092711

TS Haitang Update #5 Brief (Landfall)

2011-09-26T12:45:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Haitang is now making landfall in the coast of Vietnam. It was last located approximately 60km east of Da Nang, or about 410km south of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph gusting to 90kph. Haitang has accelerated and is moving westward at 20kph which has made the landfall time way earlier than what we forecast yesterday.

The closest radar we have from NCHMF of Vietnam (Official Weather Agency) is in Vinh which is roughly 200km away from the projected landfall point. The image below shows widespread light to moderate rain now affecting much of Vietnam. Please keep in mind that radars like this does have limitations in depicting rainfall.

Radar from NCHMF, for more images click HERE

The IR Image from NRLMRY shows the convective activity, which is sheared to west, is now over much of Central Vietnam. Bright yellow echos indicate the most intense of convection. These activities could bring widespread moderate to heavy rain with amounts of possibly more than 300mm in 24 hours. Please always listen to your OFFICIAL Agency for the warnings and advisories.

IR from NRLMRY

Haitang should make landfall in an hour or two near Da Nang. It will then continue moving westward, weakening once it hits land. It should dissipate later tonight as it crosses into Laos.

We'll have another update later this morning.
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Issued (1930 UTC) 330am PhT 092711

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #9 Brief

2011-09-26T08:53:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) was last located approximately 180km east of Casiguran, Aurora or about 320km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds remain at 150kph gusting to 185kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

Latest IR Image shows the eye has become more organized and discernible. Advanced Dvorak Technique numbers (used to determine a storm's intensity) are rapidly rising and we could certainly see Nesat intensify a little bit more over the next 6 hours.

IR Image from NRLMRY

As of 11pm tonight, Signal #3 is up for Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, and Quirino. Signal #2 for Ilocos Norte, Ilocas Sur, Abra, Apayao, La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Quezon, Polillo Island, Bataan, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Signal #1 for Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias, Lubang Islands, Babuyan, and Calayan grp. Of Islands.

Nesat will continue moving west northwestward and will make landfall just north of Casiguran in about 6 hours or so (Tuesday morning). We'll have more update tomorrow morning. Please stay safe!
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Issued (1530 UTC 1130pm PhT

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #8

2011-09-26T02:39:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) continues to track ever closer towards Luzon. It was last located approximately 270km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 420km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained are still at 150kph gusting to 185kph. Nesat is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm today, PAGASA has raised Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Aurora, Quirino, and Isabel. Signal #2 for Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Rest of Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Cagayan, Metro Manila. Signal #1 is in effect for Ticao Island, Masbate, Marinduque, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands.

VIS Image shows the eye is becoming more apparent and the higher cloud tops surrounding the center appears to be improving as well. You can also see much of Luzon and Visayas is under thick rain clouds that are surely bringing moderate rainfall.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

The accompanying IR image also shows what seems to be warming cloud tops near the center--an indication that the eyewall is beginning to be established.

IR Image from NOAA

Typhoon Nesat still has about 12 hours of favorable conditions before making landfall which should help it reach Category 2 status later tonight. Furthermore, the diurnal maximum occurring tonight, there is a chance Nesat rapidly intensifies into a Category 3--that will be a wait and see scenario.

We are still forecast a landfall to occur near Casiguran, Aurora by tomorrow morning (Philippine Time as a Cat 2 or even a Cat 3 typhoon. Nesat will then track across Luzon passing through Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet (just north of Baguio City by Tuesday night), and exiting through La Union/Ilocos Sur area. Nesat should weaken back to a Cat 1 typhoon as it moves over land. It should exit Luzon by Wednesday morning and should be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by as early as Wednesday evening.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

I'm also including this Typhoon Risk Map for September 26 across Luzon. This map basically indicates the potential risks associated with Nesat in terms of winds, waves, and rain. As you can see below, the areas that will likely see typhoon conditions are Isabela and Aurora Provinces. The rest of Luzon will experience strong winds of not more than 120kph. The green and orange boxes indicate where the heavy rains will fall. Red and yellow shadings indicate storm surge potential. Please remember that all the data here are not official, it is still recommended to listen to your local authorities for the OFFICIAL warnings, advisories, and instructions pertaining to your area.

Typhoon Risk Map (NOT OFFICIAL)

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Please stay safe out there!
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 092611

Tropical Storm Haitang Update #4

2011-09-26T02:19:00.000-07:00

Haitang remains a weak tropical storm as it tracks across the South China Sea. The storm was last located approximately 200km southeast of Sanya in Hainan Province or about 280km east northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Haitang is moving westward at 10kph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph gusting to 95kph.

VIS Image below shows the partially exposed circulation with the higher cloud tops displaced to the west and northwest due to strong wind shear in that region.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

This radar image from CMA shows the bands of moderate rain with pockets of thunderstorms affecting Southern Hainan. Expect rainfall amounts to range from 100 to 200mm tonight and into tomorrow.

The forecast remains generally the same. We are still expecting a landfall to occur sometime tomorrow afternoon (Vietnam Time), approximately 400km south of Hanoi. Haitang will then rapidly weaken as it tracks over land and should dissipate by as early as Wednesday over Laos. It remnants will continue to bring rain for parts of Indochina, however.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092611

TY Nesat (Pedring) | TS Haitang Video Update

2011-09-26T02:00:00.000-07:00

Latest video update on Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) and Tropical Storm Haitang. Our complete text update will follow in just a few minutes!

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 092611

TY Nesat (Pedring) Update #7 Brief

2011-09-25T20:50:00.000-07:00

Just a quick update on Typhoon Nesat (Pedring). The storm was last located approximately 230km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 500km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph gusting to 175kph. Nesat is moving westward at 20kph.

As we have forecast earlier, the eye is now starting to appear on this Visible Satellite Image. You can also see numerous rain bands affecting the entire Luzon area.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Signal #2 for Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay , Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Quezon , Polillo Island, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela, Ifugao, and Cagayan. Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Masbate, Ticao Island, Marinduque, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Bataan, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands.

We'll have a complete update coming up later this afternoon including a Video Update so stay tuned!
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Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 092611

Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) Update #6

2011-09-25T14:40:00.000-07:00

Typhoon Nesat (Bagyong Pedring) continues to strengthen as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 650km east of Manila or about 320km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph gusting to 165kph. Nesat is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am today, Signal #2 is in effect for Isabela, Aurora, Catanduanes, Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Signal #1 is up for Albay, Burias Island, Sorsogon, Quezon, Quirino, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Mt. Province, Kalinga, and Cagayan.

Areas mentioned abover, particularly the Bicol Region, will begin experiencing tropical storm conditions today with strong winds of as high as 65 to 100kph and moderate to heavy rain with amounts totalling as high as 200mm. Lighter amounts of rain elsewhere. Manila will also see some rains today along with breezy conditions although Nesat is not really expected to directly affect the metropolis.

Latest IR Image continue to show very impressive convective activity with the eye starting to form. A microwave image also confims the early stages of eyewall development. Conditions remain highly favorable for continued development up until landfall. You can also see bands of convection moving across much of Luzon bringing light to moderate rain showers and also some scattered thunderstorms.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Forecast remain generally the same for Nesat. We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 092611

Tropical Storm Haitang Update #3

2011-09-25T14:32:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Haitang continues to move across the South China Sea. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph gusting to 90kph. Haitang was last located approximately 380km east northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. It is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image shows amazing convective activity with cloud tops as cold as -80C. The majority of this activity, however, is being displaced to the west due to strong wind shear in the region (around 20kts). This is stopping Haitang to intensify any further.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Forecasts remain the same. We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 092611